Heading into Election Day, Florida finds itself in an unknown place.

For the first time in more than a decade, it is almost certainly not a question of which president The candidate will win Florida’s electoral votes. The drama lies in how much the Republican earns.

Democrats seem to know this. Compared to past election cycles, the party has opted for Florida. National Democrats have made few significant Florida-specific investments in television advertising. Vice President Kamala Harris has not campaigned here since taking over the ticket. Polls show former President Donald Trump leading by almost double digits.

But that doesn’t mean Florida is headed for a drama-free Tuesday. Important races will decide the state’s future up and down the ballot, including two high-profile ones. Measures on marijuana and abortion.

Here are four things to keep in mind.

Will the Republican participation machinery continue to work?

Heading into the final weekend of early voting, Republican turnout has been nothing short of dominant. In recent election cycles, the Republican Party has demonstrated its strength in turning out voters on Election Day. In 2024, they may not need it.

Republicans have come out en masse in favor of early voting. In Miami-Dade County, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, Republicans were win the participation battle by 5 points starting Thursday. The GOP is also turning out more voters than Democrats in Pinellas, Pasco and even Hillsborough, long a blue haven in big races, according to a Fresh Take Florida analysis.

Democrats say Republican early voting will reduce GOP turnout in Election day.

Republican operatives say they are not worried.

“I’m not worried about cannibalizing our turnout,” said Adam Ross, chairman of the Pinellas County Republican Party. “I couldn’t even pay our Election Day voters to vote early.”

Were Democrats smart to stay away?

Florida is an expensive state to run a campaign in.

usually national democrats You could spend nine figures in the Sunshine State alone between the presidential elections and other state races such as the effort to unseat Republican Rick Scott in the US Senate.

This year they allocated those resources to other places: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina; Senate races in Ohio, Montana and Texas.

Did they make a good strategic decision?

the answer it probably won’t be clear until long after the dust settles on the 2024 elections. Even if Harris wins and Democrats retain some contested seats in the national Senate, party officials here worry that Florida could it becomes redder unless the party invests more.

Rep. Fentrice Driskell, D-Tampa, is leading the Democratic effort to flip state House seats. He said he hopes some election victories will convince national donors that Florida deserves more consideration in the next cycle.

“Of course, I would have preferred to have domestic investment here,” Driskell said. “But I do understand Vice President Harris’ strategy in terms of shrinking her map because she has her own race.”

What will the Hispanic vote be like?

The Trump campaign made a high-profile stumble in its final message to a key electorate earlier this week.

At a rally last week, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, speaking at a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden in New York, called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.”

Floridians The entire political spectrum condemned the commentand Democrats held an hour-long call Monday with reporters in which they predicted that Trump’s campaign would suffer electoral consequences.

“Yesterday we saw despicable attacks against the Puerto Rican community and we have eight days left for our community to respond: voting, voting, voting,” said U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, who is of Puerto Rican descent and represents a Puerto Rican. -Much of Central Florida in Congress. “That’s the only way.”

But past polls and elections show that Trump has made significant gains among Hispanic voters, particularly in Florida. Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade County, with a large Cuban and Venezuelan population, by nearly 30 percentage points in 2016. Four years later, Joe Biden won the county by seven.

State Sen. Shevrin Jones, D-Miami Gardens, chairwoman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, said she would count it as a victory if Harris won the county by any margin.

A Ron DeSantis influence check

Governor Ron DeSantis has taken a lot of risks this election season.

He has mobilized the state government against two ballot initiatives on marijuana and abortion, combining state business and politics. in a way that has generated condemnation, even from some in his own party. His agencies have spent millions of public dollars trying to defeat Amendments 3 and 4. In a highly irregular move, the DeSantis administration has alleged: citing dubious evidencethat the process of collecting signatures for the abortion amendment was plagued by fraud.

Majorities of voters are likely to approve Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana for adult recreational use, and Amendment 4, which would repeal the state’s six-week abortion ban. But each one needs a 60% approval to be approved.

In the battle over Amendment 3, DeSantis faces his party’s standard-bearer, Trump, who supports the initiative.

He and Trump are aligned on Amendment 4, but the former president has spent little time talking about abortion. The issue is considered one of the former president’s weakest: polls show that access to abortion it is very popularand Trump appointed Supreme Court justices who helped end federal abortion protections.

Elsewhere on the ballot, a half-dozen school board candidates endorsed by DeSantis face a final test, including Stacy Geier in her Pinellas race against Katie Blaxberg. The race for Hillsborough state’s attorney will be a critical check on DeSantis’ influence as the Democrat he ousted from office in 2022, Andrew Warren, will challenge his own pick, Suzy Lopez.

DeSantis’ candidates fared quite poorly in the August primary. About the amendments and about local officials, Will voters listen to their governor or not pay attention to him?

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Tampa Bay Times election coverage

2024 General Election Voter Guide: More than 90 local candidates on the issues: Here you’ll find out who’s running for office and their stances on abortion, immigration, local schools, and more.

Why Florida Democrats should be optimistic and why they should be pessimistic: For the first time in a long time, Democrats seem to have some juice. Is it real?

Here are the 6 amendments Floridians will vote on in November: The proposals relate to abortion, marijuana, hunting and fishing and more.

Florida Amendment 1 explained: Partisan school board elections will appear on the ballot this election.

How Florida Amendment 2 Could Affect Hunting and Fishing: The constitutional right to fish and hunt will appear on the ballot.

Amendment 3: Florida Recreational Marijuana Ballot Measure Explained.

Five congressional races have been set in Tampa Bay. Here’s who’s running.

If Florida votes in favor of abortion and marijuana, will legislators abide by it? Florida Republican leaders oppose both amendments.