ACC football returns this weekend as No. 5 Miami looks to remain undefeated against conference challenger Duke. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Miami improved to 4-0 with a dominant win over Florida State and ranks No. 1 nationally in scoring production and No. 2 overall with 367 passing yards per game.

Duke came within 1 point of defeating ranked SMU last week after forcing 6 turnovers, but failed to convert a 2-point try and fell to 2-2 in ACC play.

What does the analytics suggest for when the Hurricanes and Blue Devils meet in this ACC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Miami and Duke stack up in this Week 10 college football game.

As expected, the models favor the Hurricanes at home in this conference matchup.

SP+ predicts Miami will defeat Duke by a margin projected score of 36 to 18 and will win the game by a expected margin of 18.5 points in the process.

The model gives the Canes a strong 88 percent chance of absolute victory over demons.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted college football efficiency measure” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

miami is a 20.5 point favorite against Duke, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total in 54.5 points for the game (Over -112, Under -108).

And he set the odds for Miami at -1400 and for Duke in +800 to win outright.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a plurality of bettors who are giving the Blue Devils a better chance against the Hurricanes, according to the latest consensus picks for the game.

Duke is getting 64 percent betting to win the game outright in case of an upset or, more likely, to keep the final score under 3 touchdowns in case of a loss.

The other 36 percent of the bets project that Miami will win the game by at least 3 touchdowns and cover the generous point spread.

Miami has averaged 22.1 points better than its opponents overall this season, while Duke has played 5.1 points better than its competition in the same field in 2024.

Over the last three games, the Hurricanes’ average margin of victory has fallen to 10 points.

And for Duke, that number dropped to 1.3 points worse than the opposition in that period.

Miami is 29.3 points better than its opponents when playing at home this season, and Duke has averaged 8 points better than the competition when playing as a visitor.

Miami is number 1 nationally with 45.4 points per game on average this season, compared to a Duke defense that ranks 29th in the FBS in allowing 20.9 points per game.

On average, Miami is good for 0.610 points per play this year, ranking number 6 nationally and is number 1 with 7.6 yards per playand No. 1 in third down offense in 58.89 percent.

Duke is No. 13 in third down defense, allowing it 30.91 percent opponents’ conversion, is 15th in allowing 4.7 yards per playand ranks 29th in FBS, allowing 0.274 points per play.

Duke is ranked 69th nationally with 26 points per game on average, compared to a Miami defense that ranks 47th in allowing 23.3 points per game of the opponents.

On average, Duke is good for 0.380 points per play, ranking 62nd nationally and 103rd in FBS with 4.9 yards per playwhile ranking 127th in third down offense in 28.71 percent.

Miami is eighth in third down defense, allowing 29.89 percent opponents’ conversion, ranks 32nd by surrendering 4.9 yards per playand ranks 63rd nationally, allowing 0.363 points per play.

Most other analytical models also favor the Hurricanes over the Blue Devils in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami is expected to win the game outright in 90.6 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the confrontation.

That leaves Duke as the presumptive winner in the rest. 9.4 percent from sims.

Miami is projected to be 20.4 points better than Duke on the same field according to the latest computer simulation of the game in the latest model forecast.

Miami is first among ACC teams with a 89 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

That model projects that the hurricanes will win 12 games this season.

Duke has no practical chance of making the playoffs, but it is a certainty that it will play in the postseason, according to the models.

The index predicts the victory of the Blue Devils 7.7 games and have a 100 percent chance to be bowl eligible.

When: Saturday, November 2
Time: 12 pm Eastern Time
Television: ABC network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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