Oregon vs Michigan Prediction and Best Bet

my best bet
Oregon -14.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect actual odds.

my analysis
Offensively, the Michigan Wolverines don’t do anything right. Even when it comes to the running game, the Wolverines aren’t doing well enough to justify how often they run.

Michigan runs 8.0% more often than the average team in a given game state. according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. However, the Wolverines rank 29th in the country in rushing success rate and 33rd in expected points added (EPA) per rush. Relying on the run so often but not having a really strong running game is a failed strategy.

Let’s put it in simpler terms: Michigan ranks 61st in the country with 4.67 yards per rush. Mediocre teams don’t give in to their mediocre trait that often.

That speaks to how atrocious the passing half of the Wolverines’ offense is.

He Oregon ducks They are generally defined by their offense, but their defense is a Top-20 unit by any metric, holding up particularly well against explosive rushes. Without them, Michigan could struggle to score much. There’s a reason the Wolverines rank 126th in the country in quality possession rate at 29.8%. Depending on one successful execution after another, the successful execution fails when only one attempt fails.

The Ducks’ offense still has to struggle this season, at least against FBS competition. Against the best defenses he’s faced: Ohio State, ranked No. 1 in current SP+ numbersIllinois (No. 42) and Michigan State (No. 33): Oregon has averaged 33.67 points. Michigan’s No. 10 defense shouldn’t stop the Ducks enough to cost them this coverage.

Especially not with Wolverines cornerback Will Johnson possibly sidelined or at best not 100%. Oregon’s fleet of receivers may miss out on the type of challenge that competitors face, but they should be able to run more freely, which is a worthwhile consolation prize.

Michigan’s defense is still solid, but not enough to make up for this debacle by the Wolverines’ offense, and against one of the top five teams in the country, that defense will keep the score close for just so long.

Parlay of the same game of Oregon vs Michigan (SGP)

Oregon -14.5

Michigan team total under 13.5

Dillon Gabriel anytime touchdown

The team’s most traditional total number would be Under 14.5, widely available but with some juice in the Under. However, look specifically at Michigan. The Wolverines convert less than a third of their drives into quality possessions. If they can’t turn one into a touchdown (scoring a modest 3.92 points per quality possession), then it would take three worthwhile drives to match this team’s total.

The team’s alternate total crossing a key number may seem like an aggressive option, but it provides underrated value.

As for Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel reaching the end zone, he has done so in five of eight games. The three exceptions: the season-opening matchup against Idaho, FCS level, the cruise control victory at UCLA and the Friday night laugher at Purdue. When competition is at least sparse, Gabriel often shoulders some of the offensive scoring workload.

Learn how to bet on a parlay in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oregon vs Michigan odds

Oregon vs Michigan live odds

Oregon vs Michigan Opening Odds

• Spread between Oregon and Michigan: Michigan +14.5
• Oregon-Michigan Money Line: Oregon -750, Michigan +525
• Oregon vs. Michigan Over/Under: 45.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Spread between Oregon and Michigan and plus/minus analysis

• Oregon spent the summer as a 3- or 3-point favorite, a number some sportsbooks pushed to -4 in mid-June.
• When this market genuinely reopened on Sunday, the Ducks were listed as 15-point favorites before falling to -14.5. As the week has progressed, the board has seen a book-by-book increase to -15 again, some reaching -15.5.
• The few books that posted a summer total posted it a full touchdown higher than where it reopened on Sunday: 52.5 in June compared to 45.5 now.
• Both that spread move and the overall adjustment emphasize how bad Michigan’s offense has been this season.

Oregon vs Michigan Betting Trend You Should Know

Michigan is 2-6 against the spread this season, falling short of bettors’ expectations by an average of 6.1 points even including the pair of ATS hits. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs Michigan.

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