The upcoming final jobs report ahead of the November presidential election could paint a murky picture of the U.S. economy.

Just four days before voters go to the polls, the federal government will release its final report on job growth and unemployment, a key economic update that could sway public opinion in the final moments of a hotly contested presidential race. . With the economy front and center throughout the campaign, data has the potential to shape last-minute voters’ perceptions when they cast their ballot.

However, Friday’s report is expected to feature some of the most skewed monthly employment numbers seen in years, as October’s job growth was artificially suppressed by disruptions caused by hurricanes and major labor strikes. These temporary factors are likely to complicate efforts to gauge the true strength of the labor market heading into Election Day.

Upcoming jobs report

Under normal circumstances, the monthly jobs report provides a clear snapshot of the economy’s performance. However, economists predict that October’s numbers will reflect a temporary slowdown in hiring, and estimates suggest that hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with the ongoing Boeing machinist strike, likely trimmed job growth by between 60,000 and 100,000. positions. Most losses are expected to be short-lived, and many workers plan to return to their jobs once the disruptions pass.

Economists project that Friday’s report will show a modest gain of 120,000 jobs for October, according to estimates from data provider FactSet. While this figure reflects steady growth, it marks a sharp drop from September’s unexpectedly strong gain of 254,000 jobs. Despite the slowdown, the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at a historically low level of 4.1 percent, underscoring the continued resilience of the labor market despite recent disruptions.

Even after accounting for the temporary effects of hurricanes and labor strikes, the numbers suggest the labor market remains strong. Despite the Federal Reserve’s high interest rates, the economy continues to show unexpected resilience, driven largely by strong consumer spending. This stability highlights the labor market’s ability to weather shocks and maintain momentum.

Policy implications of the employment report

Former president donald trump and his allies have repeatedly criticized the President joe bidenadministration, as well as vice president Kamala Harrisby rising inflation that peaked two years ago before gradually declining. Despite strong job growth, minimal layoffs and low unemployment, Trump continues to claim that the United States is a “failed nation.”

As part of his economic agenda, the former president has pledged to introduce sweeping tariffs on all imported goods, arguing that the move would revitalize American industry and bring back millions of manufacturing jobs.

Meanwhile, Harris’ campaign has said it will focus more on the economy in the final week of the campaign, emphasizing economic stability and growth under Biden.

This article includes reporting from The Associated Press.