• China’s military has flown to Taiwan’s ADIZ almost every day since 2020.
• Crossings of the midline have skyrocketed, effectively erasing it entirely.
• The raids, as well as large-scale military exercises, wear down Taiwan’s military.

Chinese fighter jets put pressure on Taiwan and they have all but eliminated a major dividing line, with almost daily incursions creating a dangerous new normal.

Since 2020, Taiwan has issued regular, almost daily updates on incursions by Chinese military aircraft into its air defense identification zone. It has also documented continued Chinese efforts to degrade the Taiwan Strait median line established in 1955.

Researchers Thomas J. Shattuck, nonresident Foreign Policy Research Fellow, and Benjamin Lewis, co-founder of the PLATracker organization, have followed increasingly bold Chinese behavior. A review of data from Taiwan revealed that ADIZ incursions over the past four years have shown a growing rejection of the unofficial dividing line established for deconfliction.

China’s military incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and its median line crossings in the Taiwan Strait have skyrocketed, with incursions into the ADIZ going from an average of 2.56 aircraft per day four years ago to 11, 63 now.

A nation’s ADIZ extends far beyond its territorial airspace, but the area is closely monitored for national security reasons. When Chinese aircraft enter Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ, they send combat air patrol (CAP) aircraft in response.

In 2021, the Chinese military flew 972 aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ, and that number nearly doubled in 2022. 1,703 aircraft were registered in 2023. And 2024 appears to be a record high, with more than 2,000 aircraft documented as of September. They are no longer limited to one corner of the ADIZ.

Midline crossings have become increasingly common since August 2022, when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi controversially visited Taiwan, and China has steadily erased it entirely. In a recent drill around Taiwan, 111 Chinese fighter jets crossed it, marking a single-day high. A few years ago, in Taiwan it was possible for hundreds of people to cross the line, but in a matter of months.

“We have become desensitized to the large number of military aircraft flying across the median line of the Taiwan Strait,” Shattuck told Business Insider. “Five years ago, that was unheard of. Now it’s just another Thursday.”

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out using its growing military to achieve unification, raising concerns in Taipei, the United States and other Western nations that China could one day enact a blockade either large scale invasion of Taiwan to force it to bow to Beijing’s authority.

Beijing’s tactics run the gamut of intimidation and coercion, including political and economic pressure and massive military exercises aimed at force the Taiwanese people to reject independence.

Recently, in two joint force exercises, “Joint Sword 2024-A” and “Joint Sword 2024-B,” the Chinese People’s Liberation Army effectively surrounded Taiwan, simulating how it could blockade ports and key areas, attack maritime targets and terrestrials, and take over the territory.

During “Joint Sword 2024-B”, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense said that a Record number of Chinese fighter jets.More than 150 people arrived at their ADIZ in one day. In response, Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, said China aims to “undermine stability and the status quo.”

Chinese raids are tiring Taiwan forces

ADIZ’s almost daily raids are not only changing the status quo in the area; They are also exhausting Taiwan’s military.

In October 2020, Taiwan’s then-Minister of National Defense Yen Teh-fa said Taipei’s air force and navy spent nearly $1 billion monitoring Chinese incursions. Taiwan has since adjusted its responses to ADIZ violations to reserve resources, but remains demanding.

In this difficult situation, “the concern is the continued degradation of Taiwan’s military assets and the draining of Taiwan’s military personnel,” Shattuck said, explaining that China is “exploiting” Taiwan’s military capabilities by “flooding the countryside and forcing Taiwan to choose what things deserve.” an answer.”

That demotion could ultimately weaken Taiwan’s military if one of China’s large-scale exercises suddenly became a real thing, and with U.S. aid to Taiwan “long overdue and behind schedule,” Shattuck said, it could hamper Taiwan’s preparation.

“The median line of the Taiwan Strait, a de facto border that created some semblance of cross-Strait stability, no longer exists” and “Taiwan cannot repel on all fronts these incursions by the People’s Republic of China,” Lewis recently wrote and Shattuck.

This is a fight of attrition, they said, arguing that while Chinese military activities around Taiwan “have become normalized and are part of the steadily deteriorating status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” Taipei and Washington still have cards to play.

Taiwan has spent years navigating complicated relations with Beijing, which opposes the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and has called Lai a “separatist.”

During his inauguration speech, Lai vowed to defend Taiwanese democracy as a global beacon and called on China to end its bullying of Taiwan. The speech further inflamed relations, and “Joint Sword 2024-A” followed shortly after. Lai toned down the rhetoric during his National Day speech earlier this month, demonstrating restraint in calls for peace and understanding.

“Lai’s National Day speech indicates that Taipei is trying to find ways to offer an olive branch to China while maintaining its claims of Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty,” Amanda Hsiao, senior analyst at Crisis Group, told BI. for China. But China’s reaction, “Joint Sword 2024-B,” was intense and sent a message.

Regardless of what Lai says or how he approaches relations, Shattuck said, China does not trust him.

“It no longer matters what kind of olive branches a DPP president can extend because Beijing will not accept them,” he said, explaining that “Beijing is trying to accelerate its expulsion from Taiwan’s own sovereign territory.” This has implications for Taiwan and its international partners.

As the Chinese military continues its incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, Washington and its allies “must remain vigilant in protesting these activities to make clear that Taiwan’s military coercion is unacceptable,” Shattuck said.

“It is unrealistic to argue that Taiwan or the United States will be able to stop the PRC’s air and sea incursions around Taiwan,” he and Lewis wrote, but there are options. “Washington,” they said, “should work to elevate Taiwan’s ability to track the situation on its territory and provide it with the necessary resources to respond as necessary.”