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Georgia vs. Florida Football Prediction: What the Analytics Say
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Georgia vs. Florida Football Prediction: What the Analytics Say

One of the SEC’s best rivalry games begins this weekend when the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party finds Florida as a challenger against No. 2 Georgia. Let’s look at the latest predictions for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Georgia is 4-1 in the SEC after defeating Texas on the road two weeks ago, and there is little room for error going forward with games against Ole Miss and Tennessee still to come.

Florida improved to 4-3 overall after eliminating Kentucky, but embarks on what figures to be the toughest part of any college football schedule this season, playing four ranked teams in its final five games.

Heading into this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, using key analytics from both teams and picking winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the Bulldogs are heavy favorites over the Gators according to the models.

Georgia is expected to win the match by an absolute majority. 79.9 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the confrontation.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the rest. 20.1 percent from sims.

In total, the Bulldogs came out ahead in 15,980 of the index’s game calculations, while the Gators led their rivals in the other 4,020 of the predictions.

And the index predicts a double-digit victory for the Bulldogs on the scoreboard.

Georgia is expected to be 12.4 points better than Florida in the same field in the current composition of both teams, according to the latest model forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Bulldogs to cover the spread against the Gators.

That’s because Georgia is a 16.5 point favorite against Florida, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

A plurality of bettors expect the Bulldogs to dominate the Gators in this rivalry game, based on the latest consensus picks for the matchup.

Georgia is getting 64 percent of betting to win the game and cover the generous points spread.

The other 36 percent of the bets project that Florida will win outright in the event of an upset or, more likely, will keep the game under 17 points in the event of a loss.

Georgia ranks first among SEC teams with a 84.5 percent probability to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

That model projects the Bulldogs to win 10 games this season.

Florida could struggle to reach bowl eligibility, according to rate calculations coming in this weekend.

The Gators are projected to win 5.7 games and have a 54.7 percent chance to be eligible for a bowl game.

College football rankings from the Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule .

Teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

  1. Oregon (61)
  2. Georgia (1)
  3. State of Pennsylvania
  4. Ohio State
  5. Miami
  6. Texas
  7. Tennessee
  8. Notre Dame
  9. BYU
  10. Texas A&M
  11. Clemson
  12. Iowa State
  13. Indiana
  14. Alabama
  15. Boise State
  16. L.S.U.
  17. Kansas State
  18. pittsburgh
  19. old miss
  20. SMU
  21. Army
  22. Washington State
  23. Colorado
  24. Illinois
  25. Missouri

Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: 25 best rankings | Schedule | teams

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