The WTA Finals draw pits Aryna Sabalenka against the world number 4 jasmine paolini as she seeks the three victories that would confirm her as world No. 1 at the end of the year.

Sabalenka will also face Elena Rybakina and Zheng Qin Wen in the group stage, which begins on November 2 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

World No. 2 Iga Swiatekwho seeks to surpass Sabalenka as world number one, will face Coco Gauff, against whom she has an 11-1 record.

She will also face Jessica Pegula, who beat her in the quarterfinals of the US Openand Barbora Krejcikova, Wimbledon champion.

Sabalenka and Zheng recently met in the final of the Wuhan Open, with Zheng breaking Sabalenka’s serve and winning a set against the Belarusian for the first time. Sabalenka won her three previous meetings, including the 2024 Australian Open final, without dropping a set or her serve.

Sabalenka leads her head-to-head record against Rybakina 6-3, but Rybakina thrashed Sabalenka in their most recent hard-court meeting, in the 2024 Brisbane final. Rybakina has not played a competitive match since the first round of the US Open and withdrew from numerous tournaments due to injuries and illnesses throughout the year.

However, her early results, including three titles and two finals, kept her in contention for the year-end event.

Sabalenka and Paolini are 2-2, 1-1 on hard courts; Swiatek and Krejcikova also have a 2-2 record, with Krejcikova winning their last two meetings.

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In the orange group, the main matchup is Swiatek versus Gauff, and the opportunity this gives the American to improve on a terrible head-to-head record.

Swiatek has won 11 of 12 matches against Gauff, including in each of the last two years in this event. Swiatek will provide plenty of intrigue throughout, as this is his first tournament with new coach Wim Fissette after separating from her three-year coach Tomasz Wiktorowski earlier this month. She will also be relatively fresh after missing the Asian tour, having raised issues with the tennis schedule in the latter part of the summer.

Wimbledon champion Krejcikova is the wildcard of the group and the tournament in general. Having qualified by winning a Grand Slam title rather than his form throughout the season, he could go on a good run like he did in London, or produce a more indifferent performance. Pegula, whose level is generally more consistent and who is coming off her first Grand Slam final, is the last player in the orange group.

Jessica Pegula defeated Iga Swiatek en route to the US Open final, where she lost to Aryna Sabalenka. (Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images)

The purple group is full of uncertainty outside of world number one Sabalenka, who is the favorite to win the entire event. Paolini has only played two events since exiting the US Open in the round of 16, winning three matches in that time, while Rybakina has not played at all since withdrawing in New York with a lower back injury. All of which means that the player most likely to challenge Sabalenka is Olympic gold medalist Zheng, who comes into the event after a very encouraging season and a very discouraging record against Sabalenka, whom she pushed in a close Wuhan final. In a tournament where it’s often about who has the momentum and push at the end of a long season, Zheng looks like he could cause an upset or two.

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How does the WTA Tour Finals draw work?

The eight qualified players were divided into four pots for the draw. Pot 1 is No. 1 and No. 2, Pot 2 is No. 3 and No. 4, and so on.

These rankings follow the players’ rankings in the ‘WTA Race’, the table that only counts ranking points earned in 2024.

Each player then plays three round-robin matches. The two best players from each group compete in the semifinals and the winners meet in the final.

This year, Barbora Krejcikova has qualified as eighth player despite being number 12 in the race. Krejcikova won Wimbledon, defeating Jasmine Paolini in the final, and a Grand Slam champion who finishes between 8th and 0.20th in the race in the year they won their title automatically qualifies for the event.

Who won last year’s tournament?

Iga Swiatek won the 2023 WTA Tour finals in Cancun, Mexico, beating Pegula 6-1, 6-0 in the final. The current world No. 2 won all five of her matches last year, beating Aryna Sabalenka to finish the year as world No. 1.

Swiatek aims to repeat the feat this year, after Sabalenka surpassed her as world number 1 on October 21.

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What is the prize money for the WTA Tour Finals?

The total prize money is $15.25 million (£11.76 million), which is a record for the event. The prize money is allocated per match win and is structured so that the champion will take home $5.15 million (£3.96 million) if they finish the event undefeated with five wins (three wins in the round-robin, a semi-final and then victory in the final).

The winner of the final will receive $2.5 million (£1.9 million), while the winner of each semi-final will receive $1.27 million (£978,000); The prize for winning a round-robin match is $350,000 (£269,500) and each player receives $335,000 (£257,900) just for appearing in the event.

The prize pool is more than $6 million more than the 2023 event in Cancun, and the prize pool for the winner is larger than any of the four Grand Slams, the largest of which is the US Open at $3.6 million (£2 .77 million).

Iga Swiatek regained the world number one ranking by winning last year’s event. (Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Why is the event in Saudi Arabia?

The Saudi Ministry of Sports and the Saudi Tennis Federation (STF) completed a three-year agreement for the WTA Tour Finals. in April of this year. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) already sponsors the ATP and WTA world rankings, and this deal is currently the most important element of the kingdom’s tennis push. Saudi Arabia has plans for a coveted 1000-level tour event, but plans for that tournament have currently stalled on the most basic principles, including when it would be played and whether or not it would be a combined event, involving both the ATP like the WTA. The players play in the same place in the same fortnight. It is not expected to come to fruition until at least 2027, if not 2028.

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They came close to a deal in the summer of 2023, but the WTA backed down after prominent criticism of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and treatment of women by prominent former players including Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova. . That left the WTA scrambling to find a host city, eventually landing in Cancun just two months before the event. This produced a Tournament beset by bad weather and poor organizationplayed in front of a temporary 4,000-seat stadium on a field that players described as uneven and unpredictable. A longer-term agreement promises stability for an event that has failed since 2020, but has not stopped criticism of a country that criminalizes homosexuality and does not give women the same rights as men.

WTA president Steve Simon said last year The Athletic that the Saudi organizers are as “committed as we are to building and having good attendance for the event.”

With the kingdom’s broader ambitions in tennis contracting (its proposal for a Masters 1000 tournament and a billion-dollar investment last year set the sport alight), this event is something of a mutual testing exercise for the PIF and the WTA (and the ATP, which we will be watching with interest). How the players feel, how well they attend and the response from the tennis world at large will inform both sides’ strategies for further discussions about the future of the sport in the coming months.

How can Swiatek regain the No. 1 ranking from Sabalenka?

Swiatek will likely have to repeat his 2023 performance and win all five matches: three round-robins, the semi-final and the final.

If Sabalenka wins all three of her round-robin matches, then there will be nothing Swiatek can do to get back on top. If Swiatek loses once in the group stage, Sabalenka needs two wins out of three; If Swiatek loses twice, Sabalenka only needs one win.

If Sabalenka loses once or twice in the group stage, she can still guarantee that she will finish 2024 as world number one if she reaches the final of the event.

(Top photos by Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff: Getty Images)