Do you want to give yourself a scare this Halloween season? Try betting on NFL underdogs.

Scoring points with your NFL picks and predictions can often be as stressful as watching your favorite horror movie.

You know those scenes where the group of teenagers enter the old, abandoned house even though they know horrible crimes have been committed there in the past?

That’s what it feels like to put your trust (and your money) in an underdog. Those dogs are earning points for a reason, often for terrible efforts in previous games, but we’re bringing them down anyway.

Then there is the classic “false sense of security” used in the second act of horror movies. The college students sloppily kissing in the backseat of the car or the brief pause of terror when you think the villain has been murdered.

Ah, you will have those “safe” moments betting on the underdogs.

The PUP with point differential will take a 14-0 lead in the first half, thanks to a take-and-score and a PI call on a deep throw that sets up a one-yard push into the end zone. It’s safe enough for you to count your winnings before halftime.

What follows those sabbaticals between scares is the worst part of horror movies: a gruesome fight to the end. The killer rises from the dead, the phone call comes from inside the house, and bodies begin to fall like the 49ers’ injury reports.

When you bet on NFL underdogs, the fourth quarter could very well be the “Cabin in the Woods” purge-of-the-system scene. Do you know which one?. And the final minutes should be accompanied by the spooky “Halloween” theme, as your bet fights for its life against the sharp claws and snarling teeth of the favorite.

Will the brave underdog survive to see the light of day? We’ll soon find out when my best moment will be. NFL Picks and predictions begin in Week 9.

Last week: 2-1
Season: 13-11 ATS

NFL Week 9 Picks and Predictions

Click on each selection to access the full analysis.

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) at Buffalo Bills

My pick: Miami Dolphins +6.5
-115 at bet365

Do you want to know how much has changed from the start of the season until now? He Miami Dolphins were 2.5-point home favorites as hosts of the buffalo bills in Week 2, and things didn’t go so well for the Dolphins in that game.

Miami was not only crushed 31-10 by Buffalo but also by its quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion, sending the Fins into a tailspin from which they have yet to emerge.

The Dolphins, however, looked much better in last week’s collapse against the Cardinals. With Tua back under center, Miami’s offense was a completely different beast. He scored 27 points after failing to score more than 15 without Tagovailoa and concluded Week 8 as the ninth-best offense per play in the EPA.

This improvement was not just due to having a hit in the passing game. We saw the running game rumble for 150 yards and an average of six yards per carry, with RB De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostertand Jaylen Wright sharing the load.

The Bills defense has looked very good the last two weeks, holding Seattle and Tennessee to just 10 points each. But Buffalo has a weak spot in the middle of this stopping unit.

While the run defense metrics look solid, a lot of that has to do with building big leads early and opponents abandoning the running game. The Bills have seen the seventh-fewest rushing plays against, but allow 4.8 yards per carry (sixth-highest). In their losses and closest contests, the defense has been hit with 94, 121, 124 and 271 rushing yards.

Given the state of the Dolphins defense, Miami coach Mike McDaniel could lean on his talented trio of running backs and try to take the air off the ball and play the possession game, parking. jose alen and the Buffalo offense on the bench.

The anticipation line for this Week 9 divisional dance was Buffalo -3 in the summer and while Miami drags a 2-5 SU record at Orchard Park, the team that takes the field on Sunday is far from the team that played musical chairs at QB. after Tua fell. We’re seeing half-point hooks dissolve at the key number of six, so grab the Dolphins +6.5 now.

Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Arizona Cardinals

My pick: Chicago Bears +1.5
-120 on FanDuel

He chicago bears They shouldn’t be 4-3 SU heading into Week 9 and they sure as hell shouldn’t come off a loss. And that means Chicago shouldn’t be considered a loser against the Arizona Cardinals.

The Commanders’ connection to that wild Hail Mary with zeros on the clock was plastered everywhere after Washington took an improbable victory last Sunday. What we forget, however, is that the Bears should have won that game 21-12 or at least 14-12.

Midway through the fourth quarter, Chicago botched a goal-line run by getting too nice and fumbled on a QB exchange. Caleb Williams and (for some reason) offensive lineman Doug Kramer Jr., who was trying to do a “Refrigerator Perry.”

The Bears would leave points on the table with that turnover, but then forced the Commanders to punt and subsequently scored a go-ahead touchdown with just 25 seconds left. Then chaos ensued.

Also omitted in the chaos is the fact that this Chicago defense did what few teams could, and that includes Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense. Washington’s star rookie, playing with a rib injury, was limited to 250 passing yards and no touchdowns before the crazy final possession.

The Bears’ defense is disruptive, generates the third-highest pressure rate, generates the seventh-most takeaways, and has the stingiest red zone defense in the country (36.84% TD rate allowed).

Arizona and its abysmal defense have notched victories over injury-plagued teams like the Rams, 49ers and Chargers, while notching a win against the Dolphins last Sunday. Before the Week 8 results, the anticipation line was Cardinals +1.5 and we are seeing some shops closer to that number with the Bears as slight favorites.

Denver Broncos (+10) at Baltimore Ravens

My pick: Denver Broncos +10
-110 in Pinnacle

He Denver Broncos They will take a big step forward in competition when they cross the country for the start at the DMV.

Denver has built its surprising 5-3 SU record on the backs of bad teams, but let’s not discount what defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is doing.

The Broncos rank No. 1 in EPA allowed per play, No. 3 in opponent success rate per play and No. 5 in defensive DVOA on FTN. Those advanced metrics remove the strength of the schedule and grade each team on a uniform plane.

That stellar stop unit locks the speakers with the Baltimore Ravens attack, which ranks No. 1 or 2 offensively in those analyses. The Ravens look like a Super Bowl contender most weeks. That is until the fourth quarter begins.

Baltimore becomes the pumpkin after 45 minutes, being outscored 93-59 in the final frame of this season. That has led to the covers being ruined as a heavy favorite, which happens to be the Ravens in Week 9.

Those missed payouts aren’t just reserved for 2024, either. Baltimore has been a bad, bad bet at lumber the last few seasons, with a crushing 1-11-1 ATS record when set as a one-touchdown favorite or more from 2021.

Giving that trend a little more punch is the fact that the Ravens could be looking beyond Denver and to a Thursday Night Football date with the rival Bengals in Week 10, setting up a classic spot of anticipation.

If Baltimore builds an early lead, John Harbaugh could start making headlines in the second half to save fuel for the short week ahead, compounding the Ravens’ Q4 disappointments. And what would you know… the Broncos are among the best clubs in American football in the fourth quarter, outscoring their foes 7.4 to 4 in those final 15 minutes.

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