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The trajectory of Ukraine’s fight against Russia depends on the outcome of the US elections
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The trajectory of Ukraine’s fight against Russia depends on the outcome of the US elections

Kyiv, Ukraine (AP) — There is no doubt that the american elections will determine the trajectory of the war in ukraine.

The status of military aid from kyiv’s main international backer depends on who becomes president, as does any prospect of a ceasefire that could benefit Ukraine.

Some in Kyiv say the country’s very existence depends on who wins the White House.

As Americans vote, exhausted and outmatched Ukrainian soldiers hold defensive lines under constant Russian fire, knowing the results will dictate their future.

The war in Ukraine is one of the most divisive issues of the November 5 elections: former President Donald Trump, Republican candidate, and Vice President Kamala Harris, Democratic candidate, defend very different points of view about how much support the United States should continue to provide to Ukraine.

After a whirlwind tour of the West, kyiv’s leaders have sought to promote their version of what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls his “victory plan.” They expect key decisions to be made by the new administration, including Ukraine’s candidacy for NATO membership.

For now they have no choice but to wait.

“We believe that, regardless of the surname of the future president of the United States, the country of the United States will not renounce global dominance, global leadership as such. And this is only possible through the support of Ukraine and through the defeat of the Russian Federation,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, Zelenskyy’s adviser.

Harris would likely continue Biden’s policies

Harris, who has denounced President Vladimir Putin’s “brutality,” would likely continue President Joe Biden’s policy of supporting President Joe Biden, albeit within strict limits on Ukraine’s ability to strike deep inside Russian territory that have frustrated leaders. from kyiv.

“President Biden has made clear from the beginning of this conflict that his top priority has been avoiding an all-out war with Russia. I think that remains the top American priority,” said Malcom Chalmers, deputy director general of the Royal United Services Institute in London.

The United States has provided Ukraine with more than $59.5 billion in arms and military assistance since Russia invaded the country in February 2022. But throughout, kyiv has been captive to tense American politics that often undermined its field potential. of battle.

Ukraine lost territory and manpower as its weapons stockpile dwindled during the six months it took the US Congress to pass an aid package. Even the promised military assistance has not arrived on time or in sufficient quantities.

Ukraine is still waiting for Western approval for attacks inside Russian territory with longer-range weapons supplied by its allies. It also occupies hundreds of square kilometers (square miles) in Russia’s Kursk region after an incursion in August.

Still, Biden’s commitment to supporting Ukraine has never wavered. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a $400 million package during his recent visit. Zelenskyy said he expects another $800 million, the first tranche for Ukraine’s long-range production capabilities. Another $8 billion is expected by the end of the year.

But for some, all that is too late.

“If the amount of aid promised but not delivered had been fulfilled, we could have entered into negotiations in a stronger position with Russia,” said Lt. Gen. Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the General Staff.

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Trump’s vague votes and praise for Putin

Trump has repeatedly questioned American aid to Ukraine, made vague promises to end the war and praised Putin.

He is also considered very unpredictable.

Some Ukrainian officials even privately welcome this quality, saying it could generate results more quickly. But much is unknown about the decisions Trump would make.

“He has emphasized that he has a very different approach to Ukraine than Kamala Harris. And if what he is saying now is translated into action, then it will be a very difficult period for Ukraine,” Chalmers said.

“Donald Trump is raising the clear likelihood that the United States will cut off most, if not all, military aid to Ukraine, which, given that the situation on the ground, although stagnant, is a situation in which Russia currently has advantage, it could tip the balance. in favor of Russia,” he added.

Podolyak said Trump “understands the logic” of Zelenskyy’s plans after meeting with him. “Mr. Trump realized that there is no way to agree on something in this war, because it is necessary to ensure Russia’s obligation to understand what a war is, what consequences Russia will have in this war. That is, you can “Force Russia to do something, but not ask it.”

In the face of Trump’s harsh rhetoric, some Ukrainian officials say that, despite his stated views, his actions as president sometimes benefited Ukraine. Some of the harshest sanctions fell on the Russian elite during his administration. Trump also approved the sale of lethal weapons to Ukraine, something President Barack Obama failed to do.

Most Ukrainians fear that Trump will stop all military aid to kyiv and that no other country will be able to match American support. Ukrainian soldiers remain defiant and say they will continue to hold the line, no matter what.

But the practical implications would be dire and kyiv could be forced to accept devastating ceasefire terms, with a fifth of its territory under Russian control.

“If aid is suspended, the situation will become more complicated,” Romanenko said. “In this case, the confiscation of Ukrainian lands will continue, but we do not know how quickly, because its offensive potential is not unlimited.”

Zelenskyy’s plans are at stake

Zelenskyy has presented his vision for ending the war to both Trump and Harris, arguing that it is necessary. He said Ukraine awaits a post-election response from Washington, particularly on the issue of NATO membership, insisting that such an invitation is irreversible.

Both Ukraine and Russia are feeling considerable economic and social pressure to maintain the war effort. For the first time, Zelenskyy has openly discussed the possibility of a partial ceasefire. But important questions remain about the fate of the Russian-occupied territories.

Russia has allocated a large part of its government budget to defense spending and continues to lose thousands of men. The possible introduction of what Zelenskyy has estimated at 10,000 north korean troops indicates that Moscow is having problems mobilizing new recruits.

However, Ukraine’s battered energy infrastructure and difficult mobilization campaign are under much more pressure than Russia. kyiv must find a way to reduce the intensity of the war and attacks on maritime and energy assets.

“Ultimately, this will only happen if both sides calculate that they will gain a net benefit from doing so,” Chalmers said.

“My concern would be in the uncertainty of the coming months, when the Russians may believe that with one last push they will actually be able to obtain much greater concessions from the Ukrainians,” he added.

Zelenskyy’s plans were developed taking this reality into account. That’s why his team insists that Russia should be forced to talk rather than persuaded to do so. Without nuclear weapons to serve as a deterrent, NATO is the only logical alternative.

“I said, ‘We don’t have nuclear weapons, we’re not in NATO and we won’t be in NATO during the war. That’s why I need this package. And you can’t be against it,’” Zelenskyy said, describing his argument to reporters.

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