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Resistance forces push military regime to the brink in Myanmar
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Resistance forces push military regime to the brink in Myanmar

BANGKOK– Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in the northeast Burma a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military with rapid gains of huge swaths of territory and inspiring others to attack across the country.

Military control seemed firmly rooted in enormous superiority in troops and firepower, as well as material support from Russia and China. But today the government is increasingly on the defensive, with the loss of dozens of strategic outposts, bases and cities that even its leaders grant it would be difficult to recover.

“The military is on the defensive across the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to move troops and then it leaves itself vulnerable in other parts,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Council for Defense Group. from Myanmar.

“It doesn’t seem to us that there is any viable route for the military to recover part of the territory they have lost.”

The military seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in February 2021, prompting intensified fighting with long-established armed militias organized by Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups in its border regions, which have fought for decades for greater autonomy.

The army’s seizure of power also led to the formation of pro-democratic militias known as the People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition Government of National Unitywhich was established by elected legislators who were prevented from taking their seats after the military’s takeover.

But until the launch of Operation 1027, named for its start on October 27, the army, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to avoid major losses across the country.

Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks by three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups, known as the Three Brotherhoods Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured cities and overran military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan State.

Two weeks later, the Arakan Army launched attacks in his western home state of Rakhineand other militia groups and PDFs across the country have since joined.

A year after the offensive began, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast expanse of territory. starts in Rakhine state in the west, crosses the north and then heads south towards the Kayah and Kayin states along the border with Thailand. The Tatmadaw has retreated into central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city of Yangon.

“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Ta’ang National Liberation Army spokesperson Lway Yay Oo told The Associated Press. “We just thought that we would attack the military council together as much as possible, but it has been easier than expected, so we have been able to conquer more quickly.”

Along the way, the Tatmadaw has suffered some humiliating defeatsincluding the loss of the town of Laukkai in an assault in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured more than 2,000 soldiers, including six generals; and of the city ​​of Lashio, which had been headquarters of the army’s Northeast Command.

“The 1027 offensive was a very impressive operation, quite complex, and the use of drones played an important role because they were basically able to dismantle the military network of fire support bases in northern Shan,” said Morgan Michaels, an expert based in Singapore. analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who directs his Myanmar conflict map project.

“And then once the army’s artillery support was eroded, they were able to overrun more difficult targets like cities and battalion headquarters.”

A year later, the military is “substantially weakened,” he said, but it’s too early to rule it out.

The Tatmadaw has managed to recover kawlin city in the Sagaing region, which had fallen in the early days of the 1027 offensive, prevented an attack by three ethnic Karenni militias against Loikaw, the capital of Kayah state, and has retained administrative control of Myawaddya key border crossing with Thailand, after containing an attack by an ethnic group with the help of a rival militia.

Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive when the rainy season comes to an end soon, reinforced by some 30,000 new soldiers since activating compulsory military service in February and its total air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, in the center of the country.

And where they might be outgunned, they have gained strength, hard-earned experience and confidence over the past year, said Lway Yay Oo of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army.

“We have military experience on our side and, based on it, we can strengthen the combat operation,” he said.

Thet Swe, spokesman for the military regimeHe admitted that it will be a challenge for the Tatmadaw to dislodge the Three Brothers Alliance from the territory it has won.

“We can’t take it back for a year,” he told the AP in a response to emailed questions. “However, I hope to be able to give you a joyful message… in (the) next two or three years.”

As the military has faced setbacks in ground fighting, it has increasingly relied on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a 95% increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170% increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes. % in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027. offensive began, according to a report last month by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately attacking civilians who it believes support the resistance militias, a tactic that only increasingly turns against them, said Isabel Todd, coordinator of the SAC-M group.

“It doesn’t seem to be having the effect they want,” he said. “This makes the population hate them even more and really strengthens the resolve to ensure this is the end of the Myanmar military as it is known.”

Military spokesman Thet Swe denied attacking civilians and said it was militia groups responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting and there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar in total, and some 18.6 million people in need, according to the UN.

At the same time, the 2024 humanitarian response plan is only one-third funded, making it difficult to deliver aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs operation in Myanmar. .

“He humanitarian perspective “For next year it is bleak and we anticipate that the deterioration of the situation will have a massive impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.

In some areas, however, the offensive has eased pressure, such as in the northwestern state of Chin, which borders Bangladesh and India and had previously been the center of many of the Tatmadaw’s operations, said spokesman Salai Htet Ni. of the Chin National Front, whose armed wing has been involved in the fight against the army.

“In October last year, military convoys heading to the Chin Mountains were withdrawn,” he said. “As a result of Operation 1027, there have been almost no major military activities.”

As the front expanded, militias advanced outside their own ethnic areas, such as when the Rakhine-based Arakan Army seized Chin in January. paletwa citywhich has led to some friction between groups, foreshadowing possible future conflicts should the Tatmadaw ultimately fall.

In the case of Paletwa, Salai Htet Ni said his group was happy that AA had taken it from the Tatmadaw, but added that there should have been negotiations before they began operating in Chin territory and that AA should now bring in Chin forces to help. manage the area.

“Negotiations are mandatory for these regional administration issues,” he said. “But we will negotiate this case through dialogue, not by military means.”

At the moment there is a degree of solidarity between different ethnic groups as they focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications at the Myanmar Institute for Strategy and Policy, said that does not translate into common aspirations.

If the Tatmadaw falls, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.

“As far as I see, there is no established mechanism to resolve the problems,” he said. “It is unlikely that the resistance will be able to overthrow the junta, but I cannot rule out this scenario, (and) if we cannot build trust and common goals, it could lead to the Syria scenario.”

Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what turned out to be a successful attempt to largely close organized crime activities which had been flourishing along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with the Tatmadaw and Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in the northern Shan, which lasted five months until ethnic alliance opened phase two of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.

China has been displeased by this development, closing border crossings, cutting electricity to Myanmar cities and taking other measures in a so far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.

Its support for the regime also appears to be growing, with China’s envoy to Myanmar urging the powerful United Wa State Army, which did not participate in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to actively pressure the National Democratic Alliance Army. Myanmar and Ta’ang. National Liberation Army to stop the renewed offensive, according to leaked details of an August meeting widely reported by local media.

However, there is no evidence that the UWSA did that.

“The idea that the northern groups and the Three Brotherhoods Alliance, etc., are somehow just agents of China is completely wrong,” Todd said.

“They have their own goals that they pursue that are independent of what China wants or doesn’t want them to do, and that is evident in the incredible pressure that China has put on them recently.”

Because of popular support for the resistance, it is less vulnerable to outside influence, said Kyaw Zaw, spokesman for the opposition Government of National Unity.

“No matter who pressures us, we are winning thanks to the power of the people,” he said.