Will New England see rain soon to ease long-term drought?

Right now, this is the seventh driest fall for the Boston area since records began in 1872. And if we don’t get rain on Halloween, this would be the second driest September-October combination on record.

This is important because fall precipitation is important to pave the way for a healthy winter for plants and other critters. The US Drought Monitor shows that some areas are experiencing moderate drought, while other areas are “abnormally dry” or drier than average. But actually we are not in a serious situation.

So what’s going on with the dry weather and why is this happening? The reality is that the jet stream is stuck in a strong ridge pattern this fall. This creates high pressure at the surface and the air actually sinks from above, creating less cloud cover and of course a lack of rain.

As long as the high-pressure ridge remains the dominant feature over the eastern United States, conditions will remain drier than normal.

Looking ahead, the 8 to 14 day outlook gives New England a higher than average chance of drier weather along with very warm conditions through late October and early November.

This keeps the soil dry.

It certainly makes cleaning up leaves a lot easier. And for those of you who still have your garden or who have planted new trees, shrubs and even perennials this year, I would spend some time giving them a drink, especially for the plant material that is in full sun. . I saw my rhododendrons fall yesterday and gave them a nice drink.

So what’s in store for us next month?

The 30-day outlook for November puts New England at a higher chance of warmer than normal conditions. There are no clear signals as to whether this dry weather will continue through November or whether we will see a pattern shift that allows for more rain.

I’d say the odds right now are favorable for average or slightly below average precipitation, at least through the first half of November. Normally the ground remains unfrozen throughout the month, so that any rainfall is well absorbed.

The weather here in New England is highly variable, fluctuating between wetter and drier than average and times of warm conditions with bursts of cold. This fall we were definitely on the dry side of the equation and it was a positive opportunity to enjoy the season before the colder weather arrived.