New UN report: The consequences of the war have delayed development in Gaza by as much as 69 years

Cairo – A new assessment launched today by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (UNESCWA) estimates that poverty in the State of Palestine will rise to 74.3 percent by 2024, leaving 4.1 million people will be affected, including 2.61 million. people who have recently become impoverished.

The review, titled ‘Gaza war: expected socio-economic consequences for the state of Palestine’ also predicts that gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink by 35.1 percent in 2024, compared to a no-war scenario, with unemployment potentially rising to 49.9 percent.

The new review builds on and updates the findings of two previous reviews published in November 2023 and May 2024. The new assessment also examines the extent and depth of deprivation, using multi-dimensional poverty indicators, and includes recovery prospects in the State of Palestine after a ceasefire is reached. .

The assessment shows that a comprehensive recovery and reconstruction plan, combining humanitarian assistance with strategic investments in recovery and reconstruction, together with lifting economic restrictions and promoting conducive conditions for recovery, could help put the Palestinian economy on a recovering track to realign itself with Palestinian development plans by 2034. But this scenario can only become a reality if recovery efforts are unlimited.

“Projects in this new assessment confirm that amid the immediate suffering and horrific loss of life, a serious development crisis is also unfolding – a crisis that endangers the future of Palestinians for generations to come,” said Achim Steiner , UNDP Administrator. “The assessment shows that even if humanitarian aid is delivered every year, the economy may not reach pre-crisis levels for a decade or more. If conditions on the ground permit, the Palestinian people need a robust early recovery strategy, embedded in the humanitarian assistance phase, that lays the foundation for a sustainable recovery.”

The assessment takes into account three early recovery scenarios, an approach that includes a wide range of actions that help quickly meet immediate, life-saving needs, but are implemented in a way that maintains the self-reliance of communities and gradually reduces complete dependence on humanitarian aid. emergency aid, laying the foundation for a sustainable recovery in the longer term.

“Our assessments serve to raise the alarm about the millions of lives being destroyed and the decades of development efforts being undone,” said Rola Dashti, Executive Secretary of the ESCWA. “It is high time to put an end to the suffering and bloodshed that has engulfed our region. We must unite to find a lasting solution where all peoples can live in peace and dignity and reap the benefits of sustainable development, and where international law and justice are finally upheld.”

The first two scenarios of the assessment fully take into account limited early recovery (RER) or no early recovery (NER). In these two scenarios, the current strict ban imposed on Palestinian workers would remain in place, as would the withholding of “eviction revenues” from the Palestinian Authority (PA).

The only difference between these scenarios is the level of humanitarian assistance allocated to meet immediate needs. If there is no early recovery at all, the assessment assumes support will remain unchanged from current levels. The limited recovery scenario assumes a humanitarian aid amount of $280 million per year.

Projections of impact yield virtually identical results for the two scenarios – with recovery to pre-war levels would take at least a decade, revealing the limitations of relying solely on humanitarian aid for the economic recovery of the State of Palestine .

In the Non-Restricted Early Recovery (NRER) scenario, restrictions on Palestinian workers are lifted and withheld clearance revenues are returned to the PA. In addition to the $280 million in humanitarian assistance, $290 million is allocated annually for recovery efforts. The result would be a 1 percent annual increase in productivity, allowing the economy to recover and Palestinian development to get back on track. This scenario predicts significant improvements in poverty, with more households gaining access to essential services and a substantial decline in the unemployment rate – which is expected to fall to 26 percent.

More key findings from the review:

• By the end of 2024, development, as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), could decline to levels not seen since HDI calculations for the State of Palestine began in 2004. However, using linear backward extrapolation, the assessment shows that:
• For the State of Palestine, the HDI will fall to 0.643 – a level estimated for 2000, which sets the development back by 24 years.
• For Gaza, the HDI is expected to fall to 0.408 – a level estimated for 1955, wiping out more than 69 years of progress.
• The HDI for the West Bank is expected to fall to 0.676, reflecting a 16-year loss, which is likely to worsen further, the assessment warns, if military incursions into the West Bank expand.
• The assessment shows that the war also severely exacerbated the extent of hardship as measured by the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI).
• For the State of Palestine, the MPI is expected to rise sharply from the 10.2 percent measured in 2017 to an estimated 30.1 percent in 2024. The most affected dimensions, where all indicators have deteriorated significantly, are housing conditions, access to services and security . .
• The largest increases in deprivation rates based on the MPI indicators are observed in the areas of freedom of movement, monetary resources, unemployment, access to health care and school enrollment. The number of people living in multidimensional poverty more than doubled during this period, from 24.1 percent to 55.4 percent.

Use this to download the assessment LINK

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For more information and to arrange interviews, please contact:

UNDP

Dylan Lowthian | Head of Media Relations | Office for External Relations & Advocacy | [email protected]

Noeman AlSayyad | Strategic Communications Advisor | Regional Office for Arab States | [email protected]

Riad Sabbagh | Senior Communications Advisor | Regional Office for Arab States | [email protected]

Fatma Yassin | Communications officer | Country Office Egypt | [email protected]

Musa Khalil | Communications officer | Assistance program for the Palestinian people | [email protected]

ESCWA

Maryam Sleiman | Public information assistant | [email protected]

Rania Harb | Public information assistant | [email protected]

LAS

Anissa Rabet | Head of the Press Service of the Secretary General | [email protected]