What Sinwar’s apparent death could mean for Israel’s war strategy – The Forward

Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Gilad Erdan holds up a photo of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during a special session of the UN General Assembly on the Palestinian bid for full membership of the UN, at UN headquarters in New York City on May 10, 2024. A veto by the United States at a UN Security Council meeting on April 18, 2024 previously thwarted the Palestinians’ bid for full UN membership. Photo by CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images

Columnist
Then Perry
October 17, 2024

If the Israeli military confirms that its forces have eliminated Yahya Sinwar, it will be a crucial opportunity for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare victory in Gaza and move to a wiser strategic approach.

As the mastermind behind numerous attacks on Israelis and the main orchestrator of the October 7 Hamas massacre, Sinwar was an arch-terrorist who appears to have gotten what he deserved. But his death would mean much more than the removal of a single evil leader; it is an opportunity for Israel to redefine the trajectory of the conflict.

Israeli officials said Thursday they believed Sinwar, the 62-year-old head of Hamas, was one of three militants killed in a firefight in Gaza the day before. The military conducted DNA tests on the bodies to confirm their identities; they have Sinwar’s DNA from his time in Israeli prison.

For too long, Israel has been engaged in what seems like a perpetual war: a cycle of retaliation and defense without a clear endgame, in part because Netanyahu’s governing coalition is dependent on far-right parties seeking to reoccupy Gaza. That has prevented Israel from setting reasonable long-term goals and has led to a steady evaporation of global support for its actions.

Changing this terrible trajectory will require a major event, and Sinwar’s elimination could be just that. Not every terrorist is replaceable; the charismatic and cunning Sinwar, leader of both the political and military wings of Hamas since August, could well be a singularity.

He learned excellent Hebrew in 20 years in Israeli prison and was released in 2011 as part of a deal that freed about 1,000 prisoners in exchange for captured Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit. Known for his charm and brutality in equal measure, he was an icon in Gaza.

Sinwar was widely seen as the source of Hamas’s stubbornness over the past year, and of the group’s determination to show indifference to the enormous damage inflicted on Palestinians in Gaza, where more than 40,000 people have been killed and many more displaced or starving. during the war.

His departure from the scene would be a milestone that Netanyahu could use to transition to a new strategic phase.

Israel must now finally focus on crafting a comprehensive “day after” plan for Gaza, with the help of a renewed Palestinian Authority and moderate Arab countries, and with the financial and diplomatic support of the United States and the European Union.

Israel and its allies must take the lead in rebuilding Gaza, which is largely in ruins. A reconstruction plan – aimed at providing humanitarian aid, restoring infrastructure and promoting local leadership untouched by Hamas – should be at the forefront of Israel’s strategy.

There are of course also risks. With the elimination of not only Sinwar, but also the exiled Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, and the military leader, Mohammed Deif, the group’s leadership structure is in disarray. That makes it unclear who can negotiate the release of the 101 hostages still in Gaza, a necessary condition for Israel to end the fighting.

Hamas fighters or rogue families holding hostages could resort to execution in retaliation for the loss of their leaders. It is essential that Israel immediately sends a message of amnesty and offers all those holding prisoners an incentive to release them unharmed. This message must be clearly conveyed and reinforced at every level. The alternative – an uncontrolled, chaotic response – could lead to unnecessary bloodshed.

A new strategic phase could also offer the opportunity for political change in Israel, opening up an alternative to a government that is widely despised locally and has little credibility internationally.

The best immediate option would be a national unity government, in which opposition leaders Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, Yair Golan and Avigdor Liberman all agree to serve under Netanyahu in exchange for a fixed election date within a year.

Such a move would demonstrate to the world that Israel is capable of both decisive military action and responsible governance. It would reassure allies that Israel’s leadership is stable, thoughtful and capable of dealing with the complex aftermath of Sinwar’s assassination.

There could also be implications at the International Criminal Court, which is expected to issue arrest warrants related to the Gaza war against Sinwar, Deif and Hanieyh, as well as Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. With Hamas leaders gone, the ICC would risk further undermining its credibility if it acted alone against the Israelis.

If handled sensibly, Sinwar’s assassination could mark the end of an era of endless war and the beginning of a new phase in Israeli-Palestinian relations. Ironically, a man responsible for so many deaths as part of his legacy could have a breakthrough that actually spares the lives of countless Palestinians and Israelis.