Republican leaders in swing states have stepped up election denial in 2020 — and may do so again

In a September 7, 2024 post on Truth Social, Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, repeated the claims he has made over the past four years.

“I know, better than most, the rampant deceit and deceit that Democrats committed during the 2020 presidential election. It was a disgrace to our nation! Therefore, the 2024 elections, where voting has only just begun, will be under the strictest professional supervision and WHEN I WIN, the people who CHEAT will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, including lengthy prison sentences, so that these corruption of righteousness will not happen again.”

As political communications scholars, we have been mapping claims of election fraud as they spread across electoral battleground states in 2020 and culminated in the violence at the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021. We did this to better understand how a myth could become embedded in political communication. minds of thousands of people across the country and encourages them to take ever more extreme action.

Our analysis, published in Politics & Society, revealed patterns that are crucial for understanding the upcoming 2024 election.

These patterns showed that the seeds of election denial were planted early, with peaks during the spring elections as early as April 2020. Local claims were spread by politicians and media figures across the country, and minor claims of wrongdoing escalated into larger calls for dramatic action. We think they are at risk of being repeated.

Trump’s statements show that he and his campaign are willing to repeat the claims of misconduct they spread in 2020 and long after.

Will local Republican Parties once again serve as their megaphone?

In recent years, there has been much debate about whether and how Trump, his advisers, and the people who stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, should be held accountable for their actions.

The organizational infrastructure that supported the #StopTheSteal movement remains largely intact. People who amplified claims of election fraud remain accountable to national and local parties. And there have even been concerted efforts to put allies of this movement in charge of election management in key places.

This movement wasn’t just built from the top down, in the White House or Mar-a-Lago. We found that hundreds of local political party organizations in the province were amplifying claims that cast doubt on the 2020 election.

According to our analysis of the behavior of 410 Republican Parties on Facebook between January 2020 and January 2021, these parties and their members questioned the legitimacy of the election through nearly 5,000 posts to an audience of more than half a million followers. These posts began in the spring of 2020, with a sharp increase in the weeks just before and after Election Day.

Some posts were lukewarm, questioning the existence of “funny numbers” in Michigan or “irregularities” in Wisconsin. Others were more extreme, calling on followers to “fight” to “defend the Constitution” or warning that “a civil war is coming.” Facebook and its conservative bias that drives greater engagement with right-wing content makes it a crucial vehicle for spreading conspiracy theories like this.

At times, local Republican organizations acted as a megaphone for Trump and his allies, repeating their claims of fraud to a local audience. However, these organizations often created their own content, giving this national campaign a sense of local urgency.

For example, the Republican Party of Cobb County in Georgia amplified false claims by what they called a local “whistleblower” that Cobb County ballots were “shredded.”

This claim became part of the national narrative of election fraud. Trump even referenced these claims of ballot destruction in his infamous phone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, when Trump pressed him to “find 11,780 votes.”

Other false claims of election fraud first surfaced at the local level but have also been amplified nationally. False claims include the so-called “lost” flash drive in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the alleged “17,000 duplicate votes” in Maricopa County, Arizona, and the alleged “20,000 dead” who voted in Pennsylvania.

Many of these false claims became part of a national narrative about election fraud. They illustrate the crucial role that local fraud claims, amplified by local party leaders, played in the national fight to overturn the 2020 election.

Not only did these local party leaders play a role in concocting the story of election fraud, they rounded up and transported some of the January 6 foot soldiers. Only a fraction of the thousands of people who heard Trump deliver a speech on the Ellipse marched to the Capitol; an even smaller group broke through the walls. But several local party officials were among the more than 1,200 people charged with crimes at the Capitol that day.

We believe that the rhetoric that we saw deployed and amplified by local parties helped to authorize this action. District party leaders in North Carolina urged their followers to do “something historic” and join “Trump’s army… on the march on DC.” Other provincial parties chartered buses or supported caravans to transport their followers to the National Mall that day.

In recent years, the president’s political map has become more predictable. Before voting for president begins, candidates and parties know which states, provinces, and even districts are likely to be the most competitive and consequential.

This predictability provides a useful roadmap for those who want to question the legitimacy of elections. In 2020, claims of election fraud from Trump and his supporters followed the political map where efforts were most likely to tip the balance. Their efforts focused on counties with growing Trump support in states where Trump narrowly lost, such as Georgia and Wisconsin.

The #StopTheSteal movement has had four years to study and even attempt to influence and control electoral processes in the most politically consequential places. It appears Trump and his allies are preparing for a similar strategy in 2024, putting state and county elections and political institutions back into the national spotlight.

But 2024 is not 2020. Americans can anticipate and work to counter the same escalation of fraud claims that has already begun, which could culminate in violence targeting political institutions and a lack of confidence in the election outcome.

In the weeks leading up to the election, there are warning signs we should pay attention to.

Are local organizations a reflection of national leaders’ claims of fraud? Do they target specific jurisdictions before casting votes? And are they trying to convince their supporters that challenging the election is their moral and civic duty? Are they targeting election administration professionals charged with counting votes?

These are the factors that can turn heated political rhetoric into something more threatening.

This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent nonprofit organization providing facts and trusted analysis to help you understand our complex world. It was written by: Sadie Dempsey, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Benny Witkovski, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Jianing Li, Rutgers Universityand Michael W. Wagner, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Michael W. Wagner receives or has received funding from the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation and the National Science Foundation for projects relevant to the work referenced in this article.

Benny Witkovsky, Jianing Li and Sadie Dempsey do not work for, consult with, own stock in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.