Scarborough Shoal: where World War III begins?

What you need to know: The Scarborough Shoal has become a focal point of rising tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has accused China of “intimidation and intimidation” in the region, which is rich in natural resources and strategically important for shipping lanes.

-Control of the shoal could allow China to exert leverage over neighboring countries and potentially threaten Taiwan’s southern maritime passages. Despite international rulings affirming the Philippines’ rights within the exclusive economic zone, China’s assertive actions continue.

-The situation raises concerns about China’s broader regional ambitions and the potential for escalating conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

Flashpoint for World War III: The Scarborough Shoal

“Bullying and intimidation” is how Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has described Chinese actions in the South China Sea (SCS), particularly in the area known as the Scarborough Shoal. These words were spoken by the beleaguered Philippine president during the latest meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Chinese Premier Li Qiang was one of many foreign representatives at the ASEAN conference.

To drive home his point and exasperation over China’s expansionist and illegal behavior, Marcos called for “greater urgency in the pace of negotiations on the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct.”

Marcos further explained that his forces, which according to international arbitrators operate in their national waters under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), “are still subject to intimidation and intimidation” by Chinese forces operate illegally in the Philippines. waters, but also international waters.

Al Jazeera reported that the Chinese Coast Guard and the Philippine Navy clashed at sea and in the air over key areas of the SCS as many as six times in August. Five of those incidents occurred “on or near Scarborough Shoal (…) an area within the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Philippines, but where China claims sovereignty.”

Why is the Scarborough Shoal important?

The Scarborough Shoal is an important strategic point in the SCS. It lies at the epicenter of the region, which is itself one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. More importantly, beneath the seabed lie vast amounts of untapped natural gas and oil reserves that China desperately desires.

Likewise, there are very lucrative fishing areas in the region that China is desperate to dominate. The Shoal itself, being the epicenter of the SCS, allows any force to project power in multiple strategically important areas.

From the Shoal, the dominant force could project power not only into the nearby Philippines, but also into Indonesia and Malaysia. Furthermore, the country controlling the Scarborough Shoal could complicate Vietnam’s attempt to become a power player in the SCS. If China were to gain ownership of the Shoal, officially or unofficially, Beijing would be able to better defend Hainan Island, which many call “China’s Hawaii.”

More importantly, of course, by dominating the Scarborough Shoal, the Chinese Navy and Coast Guard, which has become yet another arm of China’s maritime power projection capabilities, could threaten the southern maritime passages as far as Taiwan.

China’s leader, President Xi Jinping, has already stated that he plans to take Taiwan before the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China: the year 2049. However, most experts believe that China’s attempt to seize Taiwan into its growing regional empire will happen much sooner than 2049.

Preparing for China to drop the hammer (and sickle).

Indeed, the US military is conditioning its forces to prepare for the year 2027. However, it must be emphasized that China is now ready to invade Taiwan. If Beijing can become master of the South China Sea, especially the Scarborough Shoal, it will be within striking distance of southern Taiwan.

An invasion and/or blockade of Taiwan would be on the horizon once Beijing’s rulers believed they had control of the SCS and the Scarborough Shoal.

For China, this is all geostrategic. They want Taiwan. To achieve this goal, they must control the surrounding regions to suffocate Taiwan when the time is right.

China has already indicated that it is willing to risk a broader conflict with the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal and the SCS. Beijing will not be deterred by an ASEAN-negotiated solution.

Beijing believes that the West is weak and that it can expand with relatively little setback. Moreover, China’s rulers correctly conclude that the Americans are the weakest they have ever been in the Indo-Pacific, while China is probably the strongest it has been there in centuries.

With the balance of power shifting decisively in China’s favor, Beijing is unlikely to compromise or back down. China will take what it wants in the SCS, as a means to move one step closer to conquering Taiwan.

Author’s experience and expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

National Interest National Security Analyst Brandon J. Weichert is a former congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who contributes to The Washington Times, the Asia Times and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, will be released on October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed on Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock.

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