We are already in mid-November. General manager meetings have come and gone, and trades and signings have started to trickle in. The MLB offseason is in full swing, and this year that can only mean one thing: Juan Soto Watch is officially underway.

Soto is the first domino to fall this winter, a 26-year-old superstar whom all of sports’ biggest spenders hope to sign to a contract that will likely break records once the ink dries. And it looks like the baseball world won’t have to wait too long to make a decision: Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, will host individual team meetings in Southern California starting sometime next week, and are expected to Soto sign not long after.

At this point, we have a pretty good idea of ​​who those teams will be. The New York Yankees and York Mets have already been confirmed, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays have been added to the list. But Heyman also added another tidbit that caught everyone’s attention, stating that Soto and Boras will also host two other “mystery” teams, one of which is believed to be from a smaller market.

That’s right, it’s mystery team season once again. Sometimes this is just a negotiating tactic, a way for an agent to further increase the offer for his client. But sometimes, after all, the mystery team has the last laugh, which means Heyman’s report is worth taking seriously. Who could those other two suitors for Soto’s services be? Let’s investigate.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders Podcastsubscribe to The shot at the moonour weekly MLB newsletter, and join the fray for insider information from now through the MLB offseason.

We can eliminate a good number of teams from the beginning. The White Sox, Angels, Athletics, Marlins and Rockies are all a tough no simply for competitive reasons. The Reds, Pirates and Twins almost certainly don’t have the money right now. The Rangers have plenty of other needs to fill and are reportedly looking to get rid of payrollthe Cardinals are selling instead of buying, the Cubs more or less already were discarded A few days ago, the Diamondbacks already have their spots in the corner outfield, the Braves seem to have their look elsewhere and the Padres just traded Soto last winter.

That leaves us with the following options: the Orioles, the Rays, the Guardians, the Royals, the Tigers, the Astros, the Mariners, the Phillies, the Nationals and the Brewers. The Astros have their own right fielder to lock in for the long term, so we can cut him. Milwaukee and Baltimore have plenty of young talent in the outfield, which would seem to suggest their limited free agent dollars would be better used in other areas. The Guardians, Royalty, and Sailors all fit together to varying degrees, but we simply don’t have any evidence that they are willing to swim in these financial waters. The largest contract any of the four has given, the 14-year mega-extension the Royals gave Bobby Witt Jr., is less than half of what Soto is expected to get this winter.

Suddenly, we’ve shrunk quite a bit. The Rays, Tigers, Phillies and Nationals remain, conveniently on a list that includes teams from both large and small markets. Which two feel most likely? I’m tempted to give the Rays real consideration (don’t forget they offered very competitive money to Freddie Freeman a few years ago), but he feels a little rich for his blood and a tough sell for Soto given the current relocation rumors. and a dying fan base. Scott Boras loves to annoy Washington owner Mark Lerner, and the Nationals appear ready to enter a new era of contention, but it’s hard to see Soto returning to the team whose extension offer he rejected. And then there were two.

This would not be a total mystery, given how much speculation there has been surrounding the Phillies’ potential pursuit of Soto this offseason. But we haven’t confirmed any of those speculations yet, so they qualify as a mystery team anyway.

And the math adds up. This team needs a jolt after another postseason failure, and it just so happens that two current corner outfielders, Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh, have been mentioned as potential trade candidates, in addition to third baseman Alec Bohm. Given Philadelphia’s current financial and roster stagnation, it makes sense that Dave Dombrowski would want to keep an open channel with Boras without wanting too much leaked to the media; The last thing the Phillies want is for Soto to go elsewhere after Castellanos’ name has been dragged through rumors.

And it also makes sense that a team with so much starting pitching, an apparent desire for a more contact-oriented approach and one of the most aggressive front office executives in the game would be in the running here. It’s not the most likely destination, but it’s hard to believe Dombrowski isn’t at least seriously considering it.

That brings us to our mystery small market team. The Tigers are young and on the rise, and are one game away from facing Soto’s Yankees in the American League Championship Series this season. They also seem willing to spend: Detroit owner Chris Ilitch inherited the team after the death of his father Mike, who never shied away from shelling out big money to bring players to the Motor City when his team was ready to compete.

Ilitch has openly expressed his desire to follow in his father’s footsteps and now is the time to strike. The Tigers have a big void in left field going forward, with Parker Meadows in center, Riley Greene in right and Kerry Carpenter better suited for designated hitter duties. The American League Central is there for the taking, and Tarik Skubal is the anchor of a pitching staff that projects to take a big leap forward next season. This is exactly the type of team that could enter the conversation, and exactly the type of owner Boras wants to use as leverage.