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Election 2024: What’s next for immigration, Trump’s criminal cases, judicial reform and more
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Election 2024: What’s next for immigration, Trump’s criminal cases, judicial reform and more

This is the Marshall Project’s Closing Argument newsletter, a weekly deep dive into a key criminal justice issue. Do you want it sent to your inbox? Subscribe to future newsletters.

As the full picture of the 2024 election results begins to come into view, we bring you some key criminal justice takeaways surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s criminal cases, proposed immigration policies, judicial reform and those ubiquitous and misleading television advertisements about transgender people in prisons.

Trump’s criminal cases are unlikely to move forward.

Trump’s victoryvirtually guarantees that you will never face serious legal liability”in any of the four different criminal cases he has been charged with, Politico reports.

On Friday morning, special prosecutor Jack Smith requested a pause in the two federal cases against Trump for his alleged withholding of classified documents and his role in the January 6, 2021 insurrection. It is a long-standing policy of the Department of Justice that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted and that cases cannot be concluded before Trump take office. Trump has said he would fire Smith immediately after taking office, but Smith is expected to resign before opening day. Blacksmith You could choose to publish your findings before leaving, and it remains to be seen whether Trump will try to impose legal consequences on Smith for leading the charge. Trump has previously said that Smith should “go to prison” and “be expelled from the country.”

In New York, where Trump was found guilty of multiple counts of falsifying business records earlier this year, Experts predict that Judge Juan Merchán will probably not sentencing Trump on November 26, as currently planned. Even if he receives a sentence, it will be suspended until he leaves office, and it is still possible that the courts will overturn your conviction for reasons of presidential immunity.

TO A similar outcome is also likely in Georgia.where Trump and several of his allies face charges related to alleged efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 state elections. case stalled for a long time It is expected to be postponed until he leaves office or is removed for the same reasons.

However, experts say In theory, several pending civil cases against Trump could continue while in office, pointing to a 1997 Supreme Court decision that allowed a civil suit against then-President Bill Clinton.

People convicted of crimes related to the January 6 insurrection also hope their legal problems will go away under Trump, and they are “lining up” for presidential pardons. However, in a case this week in which a defendant attempted to delay his sentencing following news of Trump’s election, the The request was quickly rejected by the judge..

The backlash against criminal justice reform was evident, but neither was the whole story.

california voters approved Proposition 36which toughens criminal penalties for some property and drug crimes in the state. The measure approved by Strength of persistent fear and frustration around crime and disorder.especially viral incidences of retail theft and more visible homeless populations and open-air drug use, even when Real crime rates continue to fall.. The effort is largely aimed at rolling back reforms that voters approved a decade ago, which were aimed at reducing the state’s prison population.

A analysis by the state’s nonpartisan tax advisor concluded that the change will likely lead to “a few thousand” more people in prison and costs of “hundreds of millions” of dollars a year.

Cristine Soto DeBerry, executive director of Prosecutors Alliance Action, a progressive reform group, said in a statement that the passage was disappointing but said it was not evidence that Californians had soured on reform. “In fact, it shows that Californians favor policies that prioritize treatment and rehabilitation,” DeBarry said, pointing to an aspect of the law that requires people with multiple drug charges to complete treatment or serve time.

DeBerry continued: “Unfortunately, Proposition 36 will not deliver the support it promised,” a conclusion The Los Angeles Times editorial board echoed this week..

In the state’s largest city, Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón lost to Republican challenger Nathan Hochman, who pledged to undo the “social experiment” of its predecessor in progressive procedural practices. Hochman ran well to Gascón’s right but also pledged to maintain some of the reforms introduced by the officeincluding maintaining a conviction integrity unit to analyze the reversal of old and flawed convictions.

It wasn’t all bad news for criminal justice reform advocates. Reformist prosecutors also won races against opponents who promised more punitive approaches in places like Lake County, Illinois; Oakland County, Michigan; and Albany County, New York. And in Florida, Monique Worrell he got his job back after Gov. Ron DeSantis ousted her from office last year, alleging she had failed in her duty by choosing not to prosecute some cases.

Reformist prosecutors who remain may face new political forces aligned against them in the future. The Houston Chronicle reports that after financially backing Trump’s campaign, billionaire Elon Musk is now setting his sights on the prosecutors. Trump has also promised to take strong action on what he calls “radical Marxist prosecutors” in a second term.

Trump allies say planning has already begun for a promised crackdown on immigration. Meanwhile, immigrants share mixed feelings about their victory.

Trump’s team plans Act quickly on promises to increase border surveillance. and start the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. Senior advisors told CNN that The plan will begin by restoring the border policies of Trump’s first term.beginning with the deportation of immigrants who have committed crimes. They are also considering how and whether to proceed with the deportation of people brought to the United States as children, commonly known as Dreamers. Trump’s advisers expressed confidence that Americans would be willing to tolerate more extreme policies at the border than those under Trump’s first presidency, based on bitter public attitudes about immigration. Meanwhile, immigration advocates are preparing for a likely avalanche of legal challenges to the Trump administration’s policy.

Immigration detention is primarily run by private companies, and the country’s two largest, CoreCivic and GeoGroup, have seen their Stock prices have skyrocketed since election day..

Some immigrants in New York City expressed terror in response to Trump’s election and the increased likelihood of being deported to dangerous conditions in their countries of origin. Many members of the Haitian community in Springfield, Ohio, about whom Trump spread false rumors, Now they are also contemplating their fate..

Meanwhile, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution spoke with several Latinos Migrants without permanent legal status who were delighted with Trump’s victory. Some said they didn’t take Trump’s deportation threats literally, thought Kamala Harris was too left-wing or believed Trump would be good for the economy. Some New York immigrants who have been in the U.S. longer and are eligible to vote, shared similar sentiments with DocumentedNY.

NBC News reported this week that the Biden administration is preparing for the possibility of increased border arrivals by migrants trying to cross before Trump takes office in January. Others may already be giving up. According to Reuters, a group of about 3,000 migrants are traveling through Mexico towards the border with the United States. has decreased by approximately half since the election results were announced.

The Trump campaign spent heavily on ads attacking Kamala Harris for her position on gender-affirming care for transgender people in prisons and immigration detention centers.

In the months leading up to the election, viewers across the country, especially soccer fans, saw hundreds of ads saying, “Kamala supports taxpayer-funded sex changes for prisoners.” an advertisement featured a clip of Harris herself Telling an interviewer, “all transgender inmates in the prison system would have access.”

Some right-wingers commentators They are now arguing that this ad “may have moved the needle towards Trump.” A Trump advisor told the Washington Post that “trans issues and men in women’s sports, that whole topic is the most animated topic at Trump rallies, but I was a little surprised that it carried over to Democrats and everyone, including black men.”

As with most political advertising, reality is more nuanced than the ad claims. Prisons are required by law to provide medical care to incarcerated people. The Supreme Court has said Prison officials cannot show “deliberate indifference.”” to a substantial risk of serious harm, and lower courts have determined time and again that failing to adequately treat gender dysphoria does exactly that. That said, transgender people make up a small fraction of those held in federal prisons (the only prisons over which the president has authority) about 1%, according to data from the Bureau of Prisons. Among them, the number of those who want gender affirmation surgery is even smaller. The federal prison system has only performed this type of surgery twice, both under the Biden-Harris administration, only after a judge ordered officials to do so. Other gender-affirming care, such as hormone therapy, makes up about one-tenth of 1% of the prison system’s health care budget, according to office numbers – and it was also provided to federal prisoners under the first Trump administration.

The irony is that Harris made the claim that Trump’s announcement portrayed as outrageous – that under his presidency, “all transgender inmates in the prison system would have access” – as a kind of apology to the trans community after she argued against provide gender affirmation surgery to the people imprisoned in california during his time as attorney general.