• Staff writer, with agencies.

Taiwan could show it is serious about US President-elect Donald Trump’s demand for “protection” money with big, early new arms deals, to show it is not looking for a free ride and to show Washington its resolve. to spend to defend itself, analysts said. .

Trump, who won a second term as president this week, unnerved Taiwan during the campaign by saying the nation should pay the United States for its defense and that he had “stolen” semiconductor business from it.

“Watch for Taiwan, on the defense side, to try to start engaging them in a big arms package, to do something significant, very big,” said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, which helps broker defense exchanges between Taipei. and Washington.

Photo: Ritchie B. Tongo, EPA-EFE

It could arrive in the first quarter of next year, he added.

“But think of it as a down payment, to get attention,” he said. “They will stack several large platforms and purchase large quantities of ammunition.”

The United States is already Taiwan’s largest arms supplier, although Taiwan has complained about an order book worth about $20 billion.

A new order for missile systems worth almost $2 billion was announced last month.

China could try to test the United States during the presidential transition with more drills, hacking attacks or other forms of psychological warfare, the Foreign Ministry said yesterday in a written report to lawmakers.

A former U.S. official said he considered it “very likely” that Taiwan would move quickly to try to negotiate a major arms deal with the United States to get the Trump administration on its side and counter any lingering inclination it has that Taiwan fleeced the United States in semiconductor matter.

“They will want to solidify their loyalty quickly to secure Trump’s interests,” the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity to speak freely.

Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) yesterday avoided answering reporters’ questions about what “protection” money would look like for the United States, but told lawmakers that defense spending, which currently represents around 2.5 percent of GDP, would increase.

“The trend is for it to continue increasing,” he said.

Trump’s comments about “shield” tariffs and Taiwan’s defense budget were probably exaggerated, said Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a fellow at the National Defense and Security Research Institute.

The real message of those statements was that “the United States is willing to support NATO, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other countries, but expects these nations to contribute more resources to its self-defense efforts,” he said.

In terms of arms sales to Taiwan, the incoming Trump administration could expand arms sales to include advanced weapons such as air defense systems and drones, said Chen Wen-chia (陳文甲), senior adviser at the National Policy Research Institute. .

While such sales could help Taiwan counter the increasingly complex military threat it faces, the United States would also ask Taiwan to allocate more of its budget to defense, he said.

Along the same lines, Su said that during Trump’s previous term, he began arms sales to Taiwan on a more flexible case-by-case review basis, while deepening military exchanges and joint training between Taiwan and the United States. .

Asked about the prospects for joint military training between the two countries, Chen said Trump has repeatedly emphasized that Taiwan take steps to defend itself, so U.S. military training assistance would likely be more limited.

Direct training assistance would likely be reduced, but more technical support and equipment would be provided, he added.

The potential impact would depend on which foreign policy and national security officials Trump appoints, said National Taiwan University Department of Political Science associate professor Chen Shih-min (陳世民).

Members of the traditional establishment within the Republican Party remain internationalists and believe that the United States should protect democratic nations, he said.

However, if the “Make America Great Again” faction takes the lead, key figures such as US Vice President-elect JD Vance would prioritize US interests, avoiding embroiling the US in costly wars like the Vietnam War, Chen said Shih-min.

Several names being considered for senior positions in the new US administration are people who strongly support Taiwan, including former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who after leaving office called for formal diplomatic relations with Taipei, and former national security adviser American Robert O. ‘Brien, who visited Taiwan last year.

O’Brien on Wednesday thanked President William Lai (賴清德) in X for congratulating Trump.

All of the potential candidates being publicly discussed for Trump’s secretaries of state and defense are considered “pro-Taiwan,” said Vincent Chao (趙怡翔), who was the spokesman for Lai’s presidential campaign and is a regular visitor to USA.

“When it comes to Trump, people say it’s about what he does, not what he says,” the Taipei city councilor said, referring to Trump’s comments about Taiwan during the campaign. “Taiwanese have no reason to worry. “We should have confidence.”