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Shifts in anti-criminal justice reform bias among California voters
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Shifts in anti-criminal justice reform bias among California voters

In deep Los Angeles County, the “godfather of progressive prosecutors” lost his re-election bid by more than 20 percentage points to a former Republican.

In the Bay Area, voters appear to have ousted another reform-minded district attorney.

And across the state, a tough-on-crime ballot initiative passed with overwhelming support.

Four years after nationwide calls for police accountability and a reinvention of the criminal justice system led to big victories for reform candidates in California, voters dramatically changed course Tuesday night.

Former federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman, who led a law-and-order campaign against the current district. Lawyer. George Gascón in Los Angeles, won by 23 points.

Nearly two-thirds of voters supported recalling the Alameda County district. Lawyer. Pamela Price amid concerns about crime and growing homelessness. It was the second time in three years that a progressive Bay Area district attorney was removed from office before finishing his term.

Proposition 36, which will essentially erase California’s landmark 2014 sentencing reform bill, received support from 70% of voters on Tuesday. Democrats have warned that the measure will reinstate draconian drug war policies, leading to longer prison sentences for many crimes.

Dan Schnur, a former adviser to Republican politicians in California who teaches political communications at USC, said that since the last election, “the culture both in California and across the country has become more concerned with violent crime and retail theft.” ”.

“Voters are notorious course-correctors,” Schnur said. “They’re always adjusting their latest decisions to try to make them a little bit better.”

Violent crime spiked across the country early in the COVID-19 pandemic, and viral videos of so-called retail robberies became staples of the nightly news in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Donald Trump spent much of his successful presidential campaign painting the United States as lawless and unsafe under the Biden administration.

Statewide, violent crimes increased 15% between 2020 and 2023, according to data from the California Department of Justice, while property crimes increased about 5.5%. Crimes against property started to decrease in 2023 in 46 counties, including nine of the 15 largest. The remaining six largest counties saw an increase, including Alameda.

Chesa Boudin, former San Francisco district attorney recalled in 2022, understands voters are outraged

“Across the state, voters are really concerned about public safety and are frustrated with the incumbents,” Boudin said.

Panic over lawlessness in San Francisco prompted the overthrow of progressive Boudin two years ago, even though crime rates declined while he was in office. His more traditional successor, Brooke Jenkins, won re-election Tuesday night despite data showing violent crime increased during her tenure.

Across the bay, Price faced a recall movement almost as soon as she was elected. Alameda’s first black district attorney has pledged to address police misconduct and stop over-criminalizing young people. she has been criticized for failing to prosecute crimes, even though county data shows he filed cases at nearly the same rate as his predecessor, according to the news site Berkeleyside.

Early results showed that 65% of Alameda County voters supported his recall. He has served less than two years of a six-year term.

“It’s crazy to expect that someone new to office … can accomplish something voters want in two years,” Boudin said. “It’s just not realistic.”

Tyrell Baker, 60, a San Leandro voter, also questioned whether a recall would solve the issues voters care most about.

“The people who came up with the recall want someone to do something that can’t be done,” Baker said. “They want this superhero politician to come in.”

Although there is no singular facet that causes crime statistics to increase or decrease, victims’ rights advocates and law enforcement leaders have recently directed their frustrations at two targets: progressive prosecutors like those in Los Angeles and the Bay Area, and Proposition 47.

The 2014 ballot initiative, which came at a time when California wanted to reduce its prison population and limit its reliance on incarceration, reduced some felonies to misdemeanors and allowed some prisoners to be resentenced or released if the crime for the who were convicted had been reclassified.

In the decade since its passage, critics have persistently blamed the ballot measure, which Gascón helped draft, for the rise in shoplifting and retail theft.

Studies from the Public Policy Institute of California have questioned whether Proposition 47 is to blame for the rise in crimes such as shoplifting and commercial robbery, and have also pointed to low clearance rates by police. Overall, property crimes decreased 6% statewide from 2014 to 2023, according to the state Department of Justice.

Proposition 36 will essentially undo the 2014 law by increasing penalties for theft and certain drug crimes. He faced resistance in Sacramento and from Governor Gavin Newsom, despite Polls have long predicted his approval.

Some experts have suggested that the bill’s inclusion of a component giving nonviolent drug offenders the option of enrolling in rehab rather than incarceration may have made them more attractive to moderate and left-leaning voters. It remains uncertain whether most counties have the funds or programs in place to make that component of the law viable in January.

Questions also remain about how the measure may conflict with a retail theft invoice package Newsom signed the law into law in August.

Nicholas Hobbs, a 32-year-old downtown Los Angeles resident, is among those who wanted to see more concerted efforts to clean up the streets.

He voted in favor of Gascón and Proposition 36, noting that while he rejects the idea that crime is out of control, living near Skid Row he sees firsthand the effects of mental illness and addiction. Encampments continue to encroach on his neighborhood, he said, and someone recently broke into his apartment building by throwing a pole through a window.

“The general essence of saying that everything is worse, is dangerous, is not true. But aesthetically things have gotten worse,” he said.

He was concerned that Gascón’s policies were too “reactionary” to the political moment of 2020, but said he did not find Hochman to be a credible alternative.

Business interests played a role in raising concerns about property crime and organized retail theft, which were repeatedly highlighted by proponents of Proposition 36, although a Times investigation previously suggested that such groups often grossly inflate the financial losses they suffer due to crime. Walmart, Home Depot and Target were among the participants in the initiative. more generous donors. Big business backing also helped Hochman gain a huge fundraising advantage over Gascón.

Insah Rahman, vice president of advocacy and partnerships at the Vera Institute, a nonprofit that advocates for criminal justice reform, said seeing items in pharmacies and big-box stores locked behind protective glass to prevent theft has a further effect. immediately on voters. than any data point.

“The incentive for retailers to push tough on crime is that they’re seeing declines in sales, and one way to tell customers, ‘Come back,’ is to say, ‘We’ve done something about retail.'” robberies or people hanging around outside doing drugs,’” he said.

Another setback for criminal justice advocates this year was the failure of Proposition 6which followed on Wednesday morning with 54% of voters cast a “no” vote. This is the second failed attempt to ban involuntary servitude and mandatory work requirements for state prisoners. A similar measure is likely to happen in snowfall

Assemblywoman Lori D. Wilson (D-Suisan City), author of the legislation that became Proposition 6, questioned whether criminal justice reform “has gone too far.”

Amid polls showing the measure was unlikely to pass, Wilson told the Times before Tuesday’s vote that voters “are concerned about their safety,” which has apparently translated into resistance to prison reforms in general. But, Wilson said, that doesn’t mean voters support slavery.

Rahman saw the Election Day results as a sign of a panicked electorate that was hit with alarmist rhetoric about violence and theft for months.

“When voters are frustrated, when voters are afraid, criminal justice reform is an easy target to exploit that fear and that frustration,” he said. “We saw the Republican Party and conservative forces, from Trump onward, use fear of crime as a political cudgel.”

Hochman, who ran as an independent in a race during which Gascón repeatedly tried to portray him as an ultra-conservative, scoffed at the idea that partisanship had anything to do with Tuesday’s results. He described public safety as an “intercutting issue” and said California voters are simply looking for someone who makes them feel safe.

“In a hyper-partisan political environment in which this election was held,” he said. “An independent just defeated a Democrat who tried to politicize the race. … Ultimately, people want to have security for themselves and their families.”