SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico– Hurricane Rafael, a Category 2 with sustained winds of 100 mph, is rapidly intensifying in the Caribbean as it approaches Cuba on Wednesday.

After passing through the Caribbean, the powerful hurricane is expected to face serious resistance in the Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall as a much weaker storm this weekend anywhere from the US Gulf Coast to northeastern Mexico. Mexico.

On Wednesday morning, Rafael was 160 miles from Cuba.

It is still unclear what, if any, threat Rafael threatens to the Gulf Coast, but it is coming into better focus, and a more reliable forecast will be possible once the storm is in the Gulf on Thursday.

Rafael’s threat to Cuba is clear.

It will be a strong Category 2 hurricane when it makes landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center. If it strengthens slightly more than currently forecast, it could be a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) upon landfall.

Nine storms, including Rafael, have intensified rapidly in the Atlantic basin this year, fueled by excessively warm water. Rapid intensification is occurring more frequently as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution.

Rafael is the strongest hurricane to hit the northwest Caribbean in November since 2009, according to NOAA data. It is expected to become the fifth hurricane to sweep through the Gulf of Mexico in November since 1966, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Heavy rains caused by the hurricane spread across Cuba on Wednesday morning and will flood the country through Thursday. Double-digit rainfall totals are possible. Tropical storm-force wind gusts were blowing off the country’s southern coast early Wednesday morning. Those winds and stronger hurricane-force winds will spread across Cuba over the next few hours.

Rafael’s powerful winds were also churning up dangerous seas and could produce up to 13 feet of storm surge off Cuba’s southern coast before making landfall.

Rafael’s future is uncertain
Rafael’s possible path through the Gulf of Mexico later this week and over the weekend is slowly becoming known, but it is far from certain.

Rafael could still become the sixth named storm to hit the United States this season, but the areas at risk are gradually narrowing.

Earlier in the week, forecast models described very different possible paths for Rafael, but these models have begun to converge on a solution. Instead of a steady northwestward track over the Gulf and a landfall along the northern Gulf Coast, two major forecast models more consistently show a significant westward shift.

The hurricane center’s current forecast indicates that Rafael could make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to northeastern Mexico, west of initial forecasts that had Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as a possibility.

“If future models continue to show this trend… an additional leftward adjustment to the NHC trajectory may be necessary,” the center said Wednesday.

Upper-level winds disrupting the storm are likely to severely deteriorate Rafael the closer the storm gets to the U.S. coast, regardless of where it is located. Current forecasts indicate that Rafael will return to tropical storm status by the weekend.

Rafael’s impacts in the United States may be limited, but the same strong tropical moisture that fueled the storm on Wednesday will bring torrential rains to the Southeast.

There is a widespread level 2 of 4 risk area for flooding from rainfall across parts of South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama on Wednesday, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Smaller portions of Georgia and South Carolina are under a level 3 of 4 flood risk.

The bursts of rain could cause dangerous flash flooding, but some areas could take time to flood given how dry many soils are after a record-breaking October.