By passing Initiative 83, DC voters have decided they want both ranked-choice voting and open primaries in future elections. But district politicians are still deeply divided over the upcoming changes. Will ranked-choice voting create unnecessary confusion or make elections more civil? Will open primaries give voiceless independents a voice or open the door to enormous conservative influence? Should the two have been bundled into a single initiative in the first place?

washingtonian spoke to political experts about what happens next. This is what they had to say:

More independents could have a voice in DC politics

This was a top priority for the creators of I-83, including registered independent Lisa Rice, who spearheaded the initiative. Since DC is an overwhelmingly blue city, the Democratic primary is the only race that really matters. However, once the I-83 changes take effect, independents and Republicans will also be able to vote in those primaries. Rice notes that many D.C. independents—as well as some federal employees—are not allowed to register their political affiliations because of their jobs. “The Democratic Party in DC has the power here,” Rice says. “I’m not trying to weaken the power of the Democratic Party. “I want it to be more inclusive.”

DC politics could shift (slightly) to the right

With approximately 75,000 registered independents and 25,000 registered Republicans potentially voting in the Democratic primary, some believe D.C. politics could become more moderate. “It won’t result in any insurgency by MAGA Republicans, or even libertarians, but it may open the door for an independent to run,” says veteran politician Chuck Thies, who supports open primaries but opposes the I-83 because it tied them to ranked-choice voting. “We will see more candidates from the center being competitive.”

Local elections could become less negative

Used by nearly 50 U.S. cities for local elections (and by Alaska and Maine for state, congressional, and presidential elections), ranked choice systems give voters the option to rank candidates in order of preference instead of choosing just one.

Today, entrenched rulers with multiple terms can often win elections simply by relying on a reliable base of voters, but in a ranked-choice system, they will likely also have to attract their opponents’ supporters. Strongly disparaging those opponents could mean alienating their voters and ending up at the bottom of their priority lists rather than second or third.

“Ranked-choice voting opens up a whole new type of campaign,” says At-Large Councilwoman Christina Henderson, who supports both aspects of I-83. “You can’t just get your 2,000 people out, you need to be able to build a broader coalition and talk to more people… Even if you disagree with a candidate on a particular policy issue, you want their voters to give you an opinion.” high rating. also.”

Mayor Bowser Could Lose the Next Election or Not Run at All

Incumbents, such as the district’s three-term mayor, often rely on their rivals to split the vote against them to comfortably cruise to victory. Ranked-choice voting would make that less likely, since dominant candidates cannot rely on support bases that make up less than 50 percent of the vote. Bowser opposed I-83, and some commentators have speculated that if ranked-choice voting goes into effect in time for the 2026 election, he would be more vulnerable to his rivals and might choose not to run again.

D.C. Council Could Stall or Substantially Change Bill

The future of I-83 is far from certain. It’s an unfunded mandate, meaning D.C. council members must allocate money to implement it. Their vote, which will likely take place early next summer, will not just be a bureaucratic routine. Several members have publicly opposed or raised questions about open primaries, and the body has the power to reject the initiative outright, as it did with an initial tilted minimum wage ballot initiative in 2018.

The council will most likely reinterpret the initiative and fund only one aspect of it, or make other modifications. “They don’t have to reverse the whole thing,” Thies says. “They can take it apart. “I could easily see this council approving ranked-choice voting and hindering open primaries by not funding them.”

Henderson agrees. “In an ideal environment, we would just fund it, but I don’t think that’s going to happen,” he says. “Unfortunately, in the District we have a long history of council meddling or overriding the will of the voters.”

Ward 6 Councilman Charles Allen, who opposed I-83, believes combining ranked-choice voting with open primaries was a deceptive stunt. He also believes that some modifications to the reforms he proposes could still be consistent with the will of voters. “There’s one part of this ballot initiative that I really support and one part that I don’t, so I can’t support it,” Allen says. “By putting these two things in one ballot initiative, they have confused many voters.”