Former president donald trump is projected to be the next president of the United States, according to an ABC News projection aired at 5:31 a.m. ET on Wednesday, November 6. As of 6 a.m. Eastern Time, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had all been projected to be the next president of the United States. Trump, and the former and future president, also lead in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada. At this point, the most likely end result appears to be a 312-226 Trump victory. Additionally, while it will take some time to count all the ballots, Trump is also likely to win the national popular vote for president.

Over the next few months, we at 538 will be doing a lot of analysis to figure out how exactly Trump won. After all, he may be only the second Republican presidential candidate since 1992 to win the national popular vote. That justifies not only introspection among Democrats, but also a lot of quality analysis. And Trump’s advance in the swing states, while not surprising, also represents a new milestone for his electoral success.

For now, though, here are three quick possible explanations for Trump’s victory tonight. These ideas are based primarily on exit polls, which for various reasons are imperfect but for now remain the best source of data available on why and how different types of people voted. (We reserve the right to revise these conclusions when more data becomes available.)

Inflation

Despite all the hubbub over various issues, statements, rallies and rhetoric during this election, the economy is unique in providing the most obvious gravitational pull toward Trump. Voters rank the cost of living in the United States as one of their top concerns, and it is undoubtedly one of the most pressing, salient, and visible issues of their lives. It’s not a stretch to imagine that they would punish the party in power for this, regardless of how unfavorably they viewed Trump; In fact, that’s what voters have been doing around the world for the past three years.

According to the exit poll, 35 percent of voters nationwide rated the “state of democracy” as the most important factor in their vote. Eighty-one percent of these people voted for Harris and only 17 percent for Trump. But the economy was the next most influential topic. Among these voters, Trump led 79 percent to 20 percent. In the end, abortion did not rate as highly as Democrats would have hoped; only 14 percent rated it as their biggest concern.

Inflation may have contributed to the growing divide between high-income voters and low-income voters. According to the exit poll, Democrats increased their vote share by 9 points among voters living in households earning more than $100,000 a year. Among lower-earning households, which make up about 60 percent of voters, Republicans won by 12 points by margin.

Racial polarization

Initial estimates from exit polls also suggest that Democratic support declined among nonwhite voters and increased among white voters (especially the college-educated). The exit poll indicates Trump won white voters by 12 percentage points, 55 percent to Harris’ 43 percent. Compared to the 2020 exit poll, this is a five-point improvement for Democrats.

Democrats fared better relative to 2020 among white, college-educated voters. They moved 7 points to the left, voting 54 percent to 44 percent for Harris. Meanwhile, non-white, non-college-educated voters moved 13 points toward Trump.

The Republican’s gains among nonwhites were particularly sharp among Hispanic and Latino voters. Democrats’ vote margin with the group fell 26 points, according to the exit poll, to just a 53 percent to 45 percent margin. Trump’s vote share among Latinos looks like it could be the best since George W. Bush’s 44 percent in 2004. Latino men moved 33 points toward Trump, one of their biggest swings.

Democratic turnout was poor

In addition to the economic headwinds and deteriorating margins of their base, it appears that Democrats also simply had a poor turnout. About 137 million votes have been counted so far for the 2024 presidential race. Predictions for the final turnout are around 152 million votes. That would be a decrease from the 158 million who voted in 2020 and would equal about 61 percent of eligible voters. That would be a decrease from 66 percent in 2020.

The drop in turnout is also likely to have disproportionately affected Democrats. While we can’t be sure until we can review the records of who actually voted (states will release them in the coming months), the drop in turnout is currently largest in the most Democratic counties of the battleground states. That’s something that would especially hurt Harris; If you’re a Democrat, then lower turnout in the suburbs is bad, of course, but not as bad as missing the mark in Philadelphia or Milwaukee, where you’re relying on a lot of votes to carry you to victory.

Over the next few months, we’ll be able to analyze even more data about why Trump won (again). The basic explanation is that it was always going to be a difficult election for Harris to win. He failed to persuade undecided voters or move his base to where it mattered most. Democrats will have to do some serious soul-searching to figure out how to recover.