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In the seven swing states that are likely to decide elections on Tuesday, the timing of results varies depending on each state’s laws and the volume of absentee ballots; The earliest indication of who might win will likely come at the end of Election Day, when results will be released. They are reported in Georgia and North Carolina, although final counts could take days or weeks.

Key facts

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When do polls close in key states and when can we expect results?

Georgia: This state will run quickly, with most votes counted within hours of polls closing at 7 pm EST. Officials were allowed to begin processing mail-in ballots on October 21 and begin counting them at 7 a.m. on Election Day. A new law passed this year requires counties to report the results of early and absentee votes by 8 p.m. on Election Day and the number of uncounted votes by 10 p.m.

North Carolina: It’s also likely to be one of the first states called, as the vast majority of ballots are expected to be counted before midnight on Election Day, said Jason Roberts, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina. . FoxDigital. Polls close relatively early, at 7:30 p.m. EST, and officials process absentee ballots once a week from October 1 through Election Day. They are allowed to begin counting absentee ballots between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. on Election Day, but early in-person votes cannot be counted until the polls close.

Wisconsin: The state can begin processing absentee ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day and polls close at 9 p.m. EST. Election officials expect unofficial results late on Election Day or Wednesday, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.

Michigan: Unofficial results expected the day after the election, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told reporters this week. Recent changes to election laws allow officials to begin processing ballots earlier than in the past, which can speed up results: Cities and municipalities with a population of at least 5,000 can begin processing absentee ballots eight days before the elections, between 7 in the morning. and 8 p.m., while the entire state can begin processing ballots the Monday morning before the election. Polls close in most of the state at 8 pm EST, but four counties in the Upper Peninsula are in the central time zone and will continue voting until 9 pm EST.

Pennsylvania: The state may take longer than others to count ballots, as election officials are prohibited from processing mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Polls close at 8 pm EST. Tabulation of results could take several days, as occurred in the 2020 election. Wait times could be shorter as fewer voters are expected to vote by mail than during the Covid-19 pandemic and some counties have invested in new equipment to open and process ballots faster, Secretary of State Al Schmidt told WITF Radio in September.

Snowfall: The state does not release results until the last voter in line, when the polls close at 10 p.m. EST, casts their vote. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to faster results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if received before November 9 could be extended. the process. Most Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Arizona: The state is among the slowest battlegrounds to count ballots, and officials estimate it could take 10 to 13 days to finish counting, according to Washington Post. Poll workers count mail-in ballots as they receive them, but do not begin processing mail-in ballots delivered on Election Day until after polls close at 9 p.m. EST. An unusually long two-page ballot that includes 13 statewide election questions could also delay results.

Which states will be the first to report results?

North Carolina and Georgia are expected to be the first swing states to release results, which could indicate which candidate is likely to win. Trump has a slight lead in both states, although most polls are within the margin of error and show a virtual tie.

What are the counting rules?

In Arizona and Pennsylvania, state laws order a count if the candidates’ votes are within 0.5% of each other or less, while Pennsylvania also allows voters to request recounts in specific precincts where they expect fraud or error or in all precincts, if there is no allegation of irregularity. Candidates can request a recount in Georgia if there is a difference of 0.5% or less between their votes, and the Secretary of State’s office can order one if there are suspected errors or irregularities. Michigan gives candidates more freedom to request a recount under new laws signed in August that allow them to do so if they can “claim a good faith belief that, except for an error in counting or returning votes, the candidate would have a reasonable chance of winning.” The losing candidate in Nevada can also request a recount within three days of the vote being certified, while North Carolina law allows them to request a recount if there is a difference of 1. % or less of total votes. Wisconsin allows candidates to request a recount if they lose by one percent or less and suspect a “defect, irregularity or illegality.”

Tangent

In a phenomenon known as the “red mirage,” early vote counts in some states on Election Day are likely to favor Trump while in-person votes are counted, as Democrats tend to favor absentee voting and Counting mail-in votes is often more complicated. delayed, leading to the so-called “blue shift”. At the same time, smaller, Republican-leaning rural precincts are also more likely to report vote totals earlier than larger urban precincts. In some other states, such as Georgia, mail-in ballots will be reported first, creating a “blue mirage.”

Key background

The election was called for President Joe Biden on November 7, 2020, four days after Election Day, when Biden won Pennsylvania when the state put him over the 270-vote threshold needed to secure victory. States generally took longer to count votes in the 2020 election as large numbers of voters cast ballots by mail amid the Covid-19 pandemic. And although early voting registrations have broken records in several states, the share of absentee votes is expected to decline this year. The 2016 election was called for Trump much more quickly, at 2:29 a.m. the night after the election, after he won all 10 of Wisconsin’s electors.

Additional reading

Trump and Harris could face recounts in these swing states (Forbes)

Undecided state polls for 2024 election: Harris and Trump virtually tied in 7 battlegrounds, and Pennsylvania a mess (updated) (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Near tie in the latest HarrisX/Forbes poll, just days before the election (Forbes)

Can Trump and Harris tie? It’s possible: this is what would happen (Forbes)

These demographics could decide the race between Trump and Harris in the seven battleground states (Forbes)