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This is what the polls say right now

Sakege November 6, 2024

The surveys are officially open throughout Florida for Election Day, closing at 7 p.m. Between mail-in ballots and early voting in the state, there have already been more than 8 million votes counted.

He race for the Oval Office It is narrow, with several national surveys showing vice president Kamala Harris and former president donald trump guiding each other for a slight difference. In Florida, several polls show that Trump get the state’s 30 electoral votes.

here it is what are the polls and the probabilities Let’s say now when there is one day left until election day.

Things to keep in mind about surveys

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results to be representative of the entire population, USA TODAY reports.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.

Pew also has found that most pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.

Who now leads the polls and is favored by the odds?

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 10 am

270towin

270towinA website that offers an interactive map of the Electoral College shows that Harris currently leads Trump by 1.2%. This has increased by 0.1% since yesterday.

He website survey for florida shows Trump leading Harris by 6.2%.

ABC News 538 Project

ABC News 538 Project shows Harris has a slight lead over Trump, 48.1% to 46.9%.

According to ABC News, the website provides an updated average for each candidate in the 2024 presidential polls, taking into account each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and internal effects.

Poll averages are adjusted based on state and national polls.

The economist

In his final update for The Economist forecast of the presidential election, they found that Harris’ chances of winning increased from 50% to 56%. Of the 67 polls released yesterday, 44 gave Harris better numbers than they previously expected.

But even with that advantage The economist I still didn’t feel that the margin was decisive.

“His new lead is small enough that it can barely be considered a lead, and it would not be a surprise if Donald Trump wins by a decisive margin,” they wrote. “But Ms. Harris is widely considered to have had a stronger week to end the campaign than Mr. Trump, and the latest batch of polls coming into our model bears that out.”

Polymarket

Polymarketa cryptocurrency trading platform that expresses increasing odds by the betting public, shows Trump leading Harris by about 25%. On election morning, Trump has 62.3% to Harris’ 37.9%.

realclear survey

realclear surveya website that shares updated 2024 election polls, shares that the betting odds are currently in Trump’s favor with a difference of +0.1.

Reuters/Ipsos

An October 29 survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos shows that Harris has a 1 point lead over Trump.

“The three-day poll, completed Sunday, showed the race was effectively tied heading into the Nov. 5 election. The poll had a margin of error of about three percentage points in either direction,” the poll states.

Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) at Stetson University

According Stetson University SurveyTrump has a notable lead over Harris among likely Florida voters.

The poll, conducted between October 25 and November 1, revealed that Trump leads by 7 points, securing the support of 53% of likely voters compared to 46% for Harris.

The poll surveyed 452 likely voters, with results weighted by age, ethnicity, race, gender, education, party affiliation and geography to reflect the state’s historical voting patterns. The survey has a credibility interval of +/- 5%.

Allan Lichtman reveals his 2024 presidential pick

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University and has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump.

According to USA TODAY, Lichtman uses a set of 13 “keys” to make his choices, ranging from economic indicators to the candidates’ charisma.

Lichtman, 77, has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election in the last half century, except for 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.