But it has conducted an “informal survey” of voters in every election since 1980 to express a preference, and will send its results to Congress anyway. In most cases (Trump’s 2016 victory is an exception), Guam’s outcome has aligned with the eventual national winner. Since the territory is 15 hours ahead of the continental United States, its polling will be examined as an early indicator of the final result.

Results are then declared for individual counties within the states as they are counted in the hours after the polls close. Key districts and counties to watch include Door County in Wisconsin and Northampton County in Pennsylvania, both of which have a history of backing the eventual victor.

Television networks and the Associated Press play an important role and compete to declare winners, “calling” states that voted for one candidate or another when they believe they have enough results in the electoral districts. Then, when they are confident, the media will end up announcing the overall winner as well. With enormous reputational risk involved if they get it wrong – and if the race is as close as the polls predict – it could be some time before anyone is brave enough to announce it.

What are the themes that define the campaign?

Harris has made defending abortion rights the center of her campaign. Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade In 2022, states have been introducing their own measures to restore women’s right to choose, a policy that is popular nationally. He has attacked Trump’s character, describing him as a fascist and arguing that the future of democracy is at stake.

For his part, Trump has emphasized the economy, promising tax cuts and criticizing Biden’s record in overseeing a period of high inflation. Immigration repression remains a central and explosive part of their political offering, and often controversy in court to convey your point of view.

Could the polls be wrong?

Of course. Polls are a media obsession and generate enormous amounts of coverage, dominating the race and shaping the entire debate. But pollsters’ record in the recent US presidential election is poor.