An SEC border rivalry begins under the Rocky Top lights as No. 7 Tennessee welcomes Kentucky in College Football Week 10 action on Saturday night. Here’s what to watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Tennessee is coming off its down week and fresh off a signature win over Alabama that, thanks to its dominant defense, puts the team squarely in College Football Playoff contention as we head into November football.

Kentucky fell to 1-5 in SEC play and is on a three-game losing streak behind one of the least productive offensive efforts in the country.

What can we expect when the Volunteers and Wildcats meet in this SEC rivalry clash?

Here’s what to watch as Tennessee and Kentucky meet in this Week 10 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

1. On the ground. Dylan Sampson drives Tennessee’s offense and is the engine behind a rushing attack that ranks seventh nationally with 241.6 yards per game, while he personally ranks 13th in the FBS with 838 yards, eclipsing 100 yards in all but 1 game this year. Kentucky ranks 52nd against the rush nationally and has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns in 2024.

2. Slow starts. Tennessee hasn’t scored a point in the first half of its last three straight games, the only team nationally to do so, thanks to a combination of forced offensive pace, mistakes, some blown plays and inconsistent production.

Kentucky ranks 17th nationally, allowing just 8.6 points in the first half this season, but that average has jumped to 17 points over the last 3 outings, 12th worst in the Power Four.

3. Strength versus weakness. Tennessee’s defense is a juggernaut right now, ranking third in the FBS in total production, allowing just 4.03 yards per play, 2.24 yards per carry, allowing 11.6 points per game and just 4 total touchdown passes, all among the top five nationally, among others. .

Kentucky is officially the worst offense in the SEC right now, ranking at or near last in most key categories, averaging just under 2 touchdowns per game and has yet to score more than 20 points. in a conference game this season.

Tennessee has been 21.7 points better than their opponents overall this season, compared to Kentucky’s average 0.8 points worse than the opposition in 2024.

In the last three games, both averages have seriously diverged.

Tennessee is back to being 2.7 points better than the competition, while Kentucky has fallen to be 16.3 points worse than the opponents at that time.

There’s also a stark difference given the venue: Tennessee is 28 points better than opponents on average playing at home, and Kentucky is 12.5 points worse when you’re on the road.

Tennessee is averaging 34.7 points per game this season, ranking No. 20 nationally in that category, compared to a Kentucky defense that gives up 19.1 points per game.

Big Orange is ranked 25th in FBS with 432.8 yards per game of total offensive production and goes against a Wildcat defense that ranks 15th by surrendering 310.4 yards per game medium term.

By snapshot, the average number of volunteers 0.475 points per play to rank 27th nationally, while the UK allows 0.353 points per play this season, ranking 60th.

Tennessee is averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense in 2024, ranking 42nd in FBS, while Kentucky allows 5.5 yards per play in defense, ranking 67th.

On third down this season, Tennessee ranks 34th nationally by converting 48 of its 108 opportunities for a 44.44 percent success rate.

Kentucky has allowed teams to move the chains 37 times out of 89 opportunities to 41.57 percent success on third down defense.

Tennessee is efficient in the red zone, coming out with points 30 of 34 opportunities for a 88.24 percent success rateand 22 of those 30 scores (64.71%) are touchdowns.

Kentucky has allowed 21 touchdowns in 28 red zone opportunities for a 75 percent success rate on defense, and 14 of those scores have been touchdowns (58.3%).

Kentucky is averaging 19.1 points per game this season, ranking 111th among 134 FBS teams, compared to a Vols defense that ranks fifth in allowing 13 points per game.

UK averages are just below 308 yards per game of total violation, ranking 114th nationally, while Tennessee ranks third in turnovers 264.3 yards per game in defense.

Kentucky Averages 0.294 points per play This season, they rank 107th in the country, compared to the Volunteers, who rank No. 4 in the FBS in allowing 0.193 points per play.

The Wildcats are ranked 113th nationally with 4.7 yards per play on average, while the Vols rank second in FBS with 3.9 yards per play are allowed. in defense.

Kentucky Ranks 82nd Nationally in Third Place Production, Moving the Chains 38 out of 98 possibilities for a 38.78 percent success rate.

Tennessee is No. 1 in FBS permits 23 of 97 conversions on third chance to 23.71 percent success against opponents.

Working from the scoring position, Kentucky has become 18 of 22 opportunities in points this season, and 12 of those scores (54.55%) are touchdowns.

The Vols are 5th nationally by surrendering 15 of 23 opportunities in points defensively, but only 8 of those scores turned into touchdowns (34.78%).

Unsurprisingly, most computer projections are on the Vols’ side over the Wildcats.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is expected to win the game in a landslide. 90.9 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the confrontation.

That leaves Kentucky as the presumptive winner in the rest. 9.1 percent from sims.

Model predicts Tennessee will emerge 20.6 points better than Kentucky in the same field, according to the latest projections.

Tennessee is a 16.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total in 45.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And he set the money-making odds for Tennessee at -880 and for Kentucky in +580 to win outright.

There are some lingering questions about the relative inconsistency of Tennessee’s vertical game, as quarterback Nico Iamaleava has yet to fulfill that potential, but in the meantime this offense is getting enough of a potent running game to make up the difference.

This week, that should be enough as the Vols battle a Kentucky front seven that has noticeably deteriorated since helping defeat Ole Miss on the road earlier this year.

Kentucky can’t really move the ball. They rank 119th among 134 FBS teams in total production, averaging less than 5 yards per play, and 121st in scoring.

College football headquarters elects…

More… Tennessee vs. Score Prediction Kentucky by expert model

When: Saturday, November 2
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern Time
Television: SEC Network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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