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    • Voters split evenly between Harris and Trump
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    Voters split evenly between Harris and Trump

    Sakege Posted on

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    With days before Tuesday Election dayVice President Kamala Harris and former president donald trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania, one of several key swing states that could determine the winner, an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk poll shows.

    Harris and Trump are tied with 49% of the vote each, according to a state survey of 500 likely voters conducted Oct. 27-30 with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

    A survey of 300 likely voters in Erie County, which could indicate which direction the state is headed, also tied at 48% to 48%. Northampton County, another Pennsylvania bellwether, leaned slightly toward Trump: 50% said they supported him, compared to 48% for Harris. County poll results are within a margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.

    2024 Election Live Updates: The latest campaign news as Trump and Harris make the final push

    Taken together, said David Paleologos, director of the Center for Policy Research at Suffolk University, the county and state data show that Pennsylvania is “truly a disaster.”

    “We have all the results within the margin of error… it’s basically a statistical tie,” Paleologos said.

    Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, the most among swing states. Both candidates have campaigned in the state this week. Triumph held a demonstration in Allentown on Tuesday, while Harris visited Harrisburg on Wednesday.

    Further: Harris and Trump deadlocked in battleground Michigan, exclusive new poll shows

    Biden won Pennsylvania by a narrow margin of one percentage point in 2020. He flipped Erie and Northampton County, which Trump had won in 2016.

    the state is part of the “blue wall”, a group of states that voted blue in recent federal elections, until Trump won three of them (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) in 2016.

    Undecided and third-party voters

    Most voters in Pennsylvania have already decided who to support, but with the race as close as it is, the small percentage of undecided people could influence the election results in the state and the country.

    Third party candidates could also do so. In Pennsylvania, there are two options besides Trump and Harris on the ballot: Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver. Each of them garnered support of 1% or less in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll.

    But if the election in Pennsylvania is as close as polls suggest, a candidate with 0.5% could tip the balance in favor of Harris or Trump, Paleologos said.

    Jason Danner, 38, is among the few remaining undecided voters in Pennsylvania.

    While Danner said he believes Trump was a good president, he is concerned that Trump uses “divisive” and “undemocratic” rhetoric and “appears not to respect the Constitution.” On the other hand, he is worried that Harris will continue with Biden’s policies.

    As a registered Democrat, when Danner finally enters the voting booth, he said he will “most likely” vote for Harris. But he will do it reluctantly.

    “I voted my whole life,” he said. “This is almost the first election where I think I don’t even want to vote because I’ve become so apathetic to our political climate.”

    Sean Doyle said he plans to vote, but will leave the presidential box blank. After voting for Biden in the last election cycle, Doyle said she cannot accept that Harris was not elected in a primary process.

    “We needed honest primaries and that was taken away from us,” he said. “I can’t stand voting for the candidate whose party thinks it’s okay to snub voters like that.”

    Doyle, a 12-year veteran, said his politics align more with the Libertarian Party, but he feels casting a third-party vote would be a waste of his vote. In 2020, he decided at the last minute not to support Trump after “remembering all the things he said negatively about veterans.”

    Although he favors the Democrats’ economic policies, he feels increasingly “disillusioned” with the party.

    “I’ve seen less and less things that really help me,” he said.

    The gender gap

    Nationally, Harris leads decisively among women and Trump has gained a similar lead among men.

    And in Pennsylvania, that gender gap is “very pronounced,” Paleologos said.

    Trump has a 20-point lead among men in Pennsylvania, 57% to 37%, while Harris has an 18% lead over Trump among women, 57% to 39%. That compares to Trump’s 16-point lead among men nationally and Harris’s 17-point lead among women.

    “Where the issue comes into play is in the home of the married couple,” Paleologos said. “It’s married women and men who are struggling with this choice because they’re talking about it under their roof.”

    Kathleen Keshgegian, 42, said women’s rights are key to why she already voted for Harris. “I have two daughters and that is my big problem,” he said.

    “I have terminated a pregnancy, and if I didn’t have that option, I think my life would be totally different, and most likely not in the best way,” said Keshgegian, a stay-at-home mom with three children, ages 11, 8 and 6. , who lives in Oreland, a suburb of Philadelphia.

    Although Keshgegian voted in 2020 for President Biden because he felt he was the best choice, “I would prefer someone younger, more in tune with a change in government, rather than the same old white people,” he said. She feels more connected to Harris, whom she finds more relatable, more compassionate and less divisive.

    Keshgegian said Trump could lower prices and understands people might vote for him for that reason. But she cannot accept what she considers his other characteristics. “He’s rude, sexist. I’m pretty sure he’s a criminal,” she said.

    “I’d rather have less money in my pocket than have someone with his ideals.”

    That calculation weighs differently for others.

    Luanne McDonald of Lancaster, Pennsylvania, said she has “mixed emotions” about the election and calls both Trump and Harris “terrible” candidates. McDonald, who describes himself as an independent, disagrees with Trump’s stances on abortion or women’s rights, but believes Harris is “weak and indecisive.”

    He voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and plans to do so again on November 5. When it comes to the issues that matter most to him — the economy and law and order — McDonald said he feels Trump will do a better job.

    “I could buy a Babka at my Whole Foods when he was president, but now I can’t afford it,” said McDonald, a former nurse, referring to a traditional Jewish sweet bread. “I’ve never felt poor until now.”

    Unsurprisingly, more than 70% of people who viewed current economic conditions as bad said they supported Trump. Harris edged out Trump among those who believed the economy was in good, good or excellent shape.

    Eric Huhn, 62, plans to vote Republican, from Trump all the way down the ballot.

    Huhn, who owns a house painting and wallpaper business in Chalfont, about 30 miles north of Philadelphia, said economic issues are his top priority. “As a self-employed person, nothing affects me more than what the government does to the economy,” he said.

    He believes the Republican platform can deliver results.

    Cheaper energy “will help reduce the cost of goods, and less regulation will also help foster business growth,” he said. “I like Republicans for their more conservative views on spending and limited government.”

    Trevor Borchelt of Berks County, Pennsylvania, describes himself as a Reagan-era Republican who believes in fiscal conservatism and moral responsibility. But he said the party has lost sight of those ideals under Trump and plans to vote for Harris on Election Day, citing “democracy” as his biggest concern.

    “I don’t disagree with some of Trump’s policies,” said Borchelt, 44, highlighting the former president’s fiscal and pro-manufacturing policies. “But if you fail the requirement of accepting the results of an election, you will not be able to participate in a democratic election.”

    Trump faces multiple criminal trials for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and has He refused to say he would accept. the result of the 2024 race.

    Borchelt has never voted for Trump: in 2016 he voted for Libertarian Party candidate Barry Johnson, and in 2020 he supported Biden. This year, he said, he hopes Trump loses and politics returns to “honest debates about real issues, instead of all the name-calling, violence and ugliness.”

    “I’m a little fed up,” he said.

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