Naim QassemThe rise to leadership of Hezbollah marks a new chapter for the Lebanese movement and can, at least in the short term, boost Iran take a more hands-on approach to leading its ally, people familiar with the party told Middle East Eye.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah said its Shura Advisory Council had appointed Qassem as Hassan Nasrallahreplacement of, exactly one month after the previous secretary general was assassinated by Israel.

Qassem is one of the few known major figures left alive after a brutal Israeli bombing campaign.

Despite the security risks associated with his appointment as the new leader (Israel’s Defense Minister immediately threatened that the appointment was “temporary”), a source close to Hezbollah told MEE that the party wanted to demonstrate that the Shura Council was still functioning and that he had managed to close gaps, reorganize ranks and cover the positions of the murdered leaders.

In command for 32 years, Nasrallah was known for his expertise in military affairs and Middle East regional dynamics.

Qassem’s career has been quite different and his lack of experience in these areas may leave strategic gaps.

“Qassem has long focused on domestic and theological issues and is not as well-versed in military strategy as his predecessors,” Lebanese political and security analyst Ali Rizk told MEE.

“Nasrallah had reached a status where Iranians used to depend on him on regional issues such as Iraq and Yemen. “I don’t think Qassem enjoys the same status with Iran, which could lead Tehran to make further decisions.”

However, any increase in Iranian involvement is unlikely to be overt.

Hezbollah is primarily a Lebanese movement, gaining legitimacy from its constituents, who have made it the largest political party in Lebanon’s parliament.

Rizk said Tehran would likely increase its influence indirectly to avoid being seen as micromanaging its allies.

“The announcement itself was Hezbollah sending the message that its members are the ones running the ship and not Iranian experts, as rumored,” the source close to Hezbollah said.

the old guard

Following Israel‘s assassination of Nasrallah In a massive attack on Beirut on September 27, Hashem Safieddine, whose personality was compared to that of Nasrallah, was the presumed successor. However, he also was murdered in an even bigger strike in Beirut days later.

Subsequently, Qassem, who had long been Nasrallah’s lieutenant, became the obvious choice. He is one of the last publicly known figures in the party leadership.

“He is the most familiar face of the old guard. He is the only familiar face you can say, and it would have been out of practice for Hezbollah to choose an unknown face,” Rizk said.

By choosing a familiar figure, Hezbollah signaled continuity in its leadership, he added.

“Some might have thought that Hezbollah would further delay this appointment under current conditions, but the decision to proceed demonstrates its determination to maintain leadership stability.”

The road ahead

Qassem’s appointment is not expected to affect Hezbollah’s overall strategy in its fight against Israel.

However, on the domestic political scene, Qassem is expected to leave his mark. In recent years, he has been much more openly involved in Lebanese politics than his predecessor, who never appeared in public due to the threat of assassination.

“We could see some changes in Hezbollah’s leadership on the political front, a less conciliatory tone than that adopted under Nasrallah. It could possibly lead to increased friction between the party and other political actors in Lebanon,” Rizk said.

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In contrast, a source close to Hezbollah said that while Nasrallah was more moderate in his positions, it is possible that as the party’s general secretary, Qassem, known as a hardliner, will take a more measured stance.

“What is certain is that Qassem faces big challenges today, as he will face political battles within Lebanon, which will include issues related to the country’s presidency and the party’s weapons,” the source said.

At the same time, the source added, Qassem will be responsible for restructuring the party organization, rallying people around him, restoring trust and rebuilding the party’s position before the war.

Rizk said Hezbollah may see Qassem as the right figure to lead in the current climate, in which the United States and its internal rivals reportedly looking to take advantage any perceived weakness within Hezbollah to reduce its influence in Lebanon, particularly its veto power over presidential appointments.

An analyst close to Hezbollah, who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect his relations with the party, agreed that Hezbollah can now prioritize internal affairs, which have sometimes taken a backseat to regional issues.

‘We could see some changes in Hezbollah’s leadership on the political front, a less conciliatory tone than that adopted under Nasrallah’

– Ali Rizk, analyst

“Qassem’s personality is more local than that of Nasrallah, who previously assumed regional responsibilities that made him a figure with regional character and dimension,” the analyst told MEE.

During his time as leader of Hezbollah, Nasrallah maintained a special status within the party that no one had before, the source close to Hezbollah said.

Nasrallah was both secretary general and representative of Iran’s supreme leader in Hezbollah’s Shura Council. This dual role, together with its massive popularityallowed him to successfully lead the party for three decades.

With his death, the source stated, the position of secretary general has returned to its “natural function,” which is participatory and consultative, with a joint leadership that makes the decisions that Qassem presents.

“The election of Naim Qassem makes him the spokesperson of the Shura Council for Lebanese issues and does not make him a decision-maker on regional issues as Nasrallah was, nor as Hashem Safieddine would have been,” said the close analyst. to Hezbollah.