The Iowa State Cyclones look to keep their perfect record intact with a home game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Week 10. The Cyclones have been impressive, but is a 13.5-point spread too wide for a conference game?

Read my Texas Tech vs. Iowa State next for the best college football teams for Saturday, November 2.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State Prediction and Best Bet

my best bet
Texas Tech +13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect actual odds.

my analysis
The Big 12 is the conference of chaos. Virtually any team can win in any matchup: the margins of error are small as there are rarely clear favorites and no opponent can go unnoticed given the parity.

That’s why when I see a team as a 13.5-point favorite in this conference, I think twice and dig deeper to see if the line is justified. Let me explain to you what that inspection revealed for the Iowa State Cyclones and Texas Tech Red Raiders.

The Cyclones have outscored their opponents, gaining a differential of +1.4 yards per play. The thing is, they have also benefited from having +9 in billing differential, which may or may not be sustainable in the future.

The Red Raiders have turned the ball over 12 times and have +2 in turnover differential. The defense needs a lot of work (115th in EPA per play, 107th in success rate), but the offense has been moving and moving forward (30th in EPA per play, 27th in success rate).

Quarterback Behren Morton was forced to leave last week’s game before halftime, but he practiced this week and appears on track to play. If he’s not ready, true freshman Will Hammond looks like a star in the making and provides a very capable backup.

I hesitate to buy into the Iowa State hype in part because the Cyclones haven’t been very impressive from a success rate perspective. It’s a statistic I value highly, as it essentially shows whether or not you can consistently move the ball on offense and prevent other teams from doing so when you’re on defense.

Iowa State ranks 82nd in success rate on offense and 63rd on defense. Quarterback Rocco Becht completed just 43.5% of his 46 pass attempts against a poor UCF pass defense last time out, and the defense gave up 7.1 yards per play to a team that could barely complete a pass forward.

There are enough warning signs to make me back away from the heavy favorite, especially in a chaotic conference where I want to be among the underdogs more often than not.

Same-game combine (SGP) between Texas Tech and Iowa State

Texas Tech +12.5

More than 56.5

Jayden Higgins touchdown anytime

Caleb Douglas anytime touchdown

For everything I said about Texas Tech’s offense being able to move the ball, the same and opposite needs to be said about their miserable defense. The Red Raiders are allowing a whopping 6.6 yards per play overall and have given up 491.8 yards per game over their last four games.

The Cyclones should score, especially considering they have one of the best wide receiver duos in the country with Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Higgins has caught six touchdown passes and has the second most PFF receiving Big 12 rating only behind superstar Travis Hunter.

Tech has given up multiple receiving scores in three of its last four matchups. The Red Raiders rank 104th in passing EPA and 107th in passing success rate while generating little pressure (126th in front seven chaos, 82nd in PFF’s pass rush metric), so Becht You should have time to separate them.

Caleb Douglas has been a monster in Tech’s last three games, leading the team in targets (30), receptions (22), receiving yards (359) and touchdowns (3). He seems poised for a very strong finish to the season, regardless of who is under center.

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Texas Tech vs Iowa State odds

Texas Tech vs Iowa State live odds

Texas Tech vs Iowa State Opening Odds

• Difference between Texas Tech and Iowa State: Iowa State -14.5
• Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Money Line: Texas Tech +450, Iowa State -600
• Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Over/Under: 57.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Spread and Over/Under Analysis

• Both teams have made profits against the spread lately. Texas Tech is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games while Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in their last six.
• Texas Tech is 13-8 in its previous 22 meetings with Iowa State and has won each of the last two games in the series.
• Both teams have tended towards the Over. Texas Tech is 3-1 O/U in their last four, while Iowa State is 6-3 O/U in their last nine.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State Betting Trend You Should Know

Iowa State is 1-3 ATS in its last four home games against Big 12 opponents. Find more college football betting trends for Texas Tech against Iowa State.

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