Law enforcement unions and real estate interests are banding together to finance an expensive campaign to defeat incumbent Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón and elect his rival Nathan Hochman, a former federal prosecutor and attorney. criminal defense attorney who has promised to undo Gascón’s progressive policies.

The numbers dwarf the amount of spending on Gascón’s behalf, a change from four years ago, when criminal justice reformers across the country flooded their campaign coffers with money and carried the one-time cop-turned-reformer to victory.

Gascón is the most prominent progressive prosecutor in the country and the results of the race could be a bellwether for the criminal justice reform movement across the country.

Much of the money goes to campaign ads that portray a dystopian Los Angeles plagued by crime and homelessness and that blame Gascón for the problems — unfairly, according to his supporters and criminologists.

Outside committees working to help elect Hochman have raised more than $7.2 million compared to Gascón’s $605,000, according to an analysis by LAist.

A union-led coalition representing Los Angeles County sheriff’s deputies is leading the way with $1.35 million in contributions to support Hochman.

“This has become our biggest race in the county,” said Derek Hsieh, executive director of the Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs Association. The association also represents district attorney investigators.

“First responders feel like the streets are out of control,” Hsieh said.

Gascón supporters say they are hopeful despite the huge expense for Hochman.

“It’s still a relatively unknown position and both candidates are relatively unknown,” said the Rev. Zachary Hoover, who heads LA Voice Action, a multifaith community organization.

He added that Hochman would take office “backwards and toward tough-on-crime policies” that hurt people of color and the poor.

Who are the donors?

Gascón’s agenda includes reducing mass incarceration by shortening prison time for people convicted of nonviolent crimes and seeking the early release of some people who are already locked up and not considered a danger to the public. And those are some of the reasons police unions across Los Angeles County and beyond are spending to overthrow him.

The Sacramento-based California Correctional Peace Officers Association, the union that represents state prison guards, has contributed $500,000.

Gascón is also encountering opposition within his own office. The union representing front-line prosecutors working for Gascón contributed $60,000 to the effort to defeat him in November. The union has been among the district attorney’s harshest critics, over what some say is his heavy-handed management style as well as his policies.

Gerald Marcil, a longtime Republican donor, is spearheading spending by real estate interests to defeat Gascón. He donated $450,000. Marcil runs Palos Verdes Investments, which owns apartment complexes in Los Angeles

“This election has the greatest effect on the quality of life in Los Angeles County than any other election,” Marcil said of the district attorney race. He is joined by six-figure donations from Douglas Emmett Properties and Kilroy Realty.

Billionaire developer Rick Caruso, who built and owns The Grove and The Americana shopping centers, has contributed $250,000 to reclaim Gascón. He said the district attorney is to blame for the crime rate.

Violent crime increased 7% in 2023 over 2020 in Los Angeles, the year Gascón took office, according to the state Department of Justice. More recently, violent crime has been trending downward.

Property crimes increased 20% during the same period and continue to increase.

But there are two big caveats. One is COVID. Crime increased dramatically during the pandemic.

The other is the fact that these are criminal trends that we have seen across the country, in big cities with and without progressive prosecutors.

“People are feeling uncomfortable in neighborhoods all over Los Angeles,” said Caruso, who is running for mayor of Los Angeles in 2022.

One expert agreed that people are uncomfortable with crime, but was unwilling to blame Gascón for the crime rate.

“I think district attorneys, who have a lot of power over individual outcomes, have much less influence on the overall crime rate compared to police,” said Emily Owens, who chairs UC Irvine’s criminology department.

He noted that the crime rate is relatively low, compared to previous decades, and argued that some of the fear is “based on one or two news stories that cheer people up.”

A different political environment

Police and real estate interests opposed Gascón when he first ran for office. The difference this time is that Gascón’s support is lagging, especially after his weak performance in the primaries when he finished first but with only 25% of the vote.

Gascón was elected with a progressive agenda in a year that saw the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis and widespread street protests calling for nationwide criminal justice reform.

Gascón attracted support from across the country. George Soros alone contributed $2.25 million. This year, Soros will not participate.

Soros spokesman Michael Vachon said Soros’ attention is focused on the presidential race.

“This reflects the unprecedented risks facing the nation and should not be misinterpreted as an abandonment of Gascòn or other local leaders who are implementing effective and humane approaches to public safety,” Vachon said in a statement. “LA County District Attorney Gascòn Has George Soros’ Backing”.

‘An uphill battle’ for Gascón

In a poll released earlier this month, Gascón trailed Hochman by a significant margin. The UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found that 51% of likely voters favored Hochman and 21% backed Gascón. Twenty-eight percent were undecided.

“Even the most principled political donors are essentially investors when it comes down to it,” said Dan Schnur, a political communications professor at the University of Southern California and UC Berkeley. “If they do not see that this investment has the possibility of bearing fruit, they will not achieve it.”

When Gascón ran for district attorney four years ago, it was at a “unique moment” for the reform movement, Schnur said.

“Voters were much more willing to explore reform efforts, and it’s not that they’ve turned their backs on those efforts, but they’re much more cautious than they were four years ago,” he said.

Individually, Gascón has also raised much less than Hochman. Gascón has raised about $870,000 compared to Hochman’s $4.6 million.

Gascón’s supporters remain confident that they will be able to overcome the deficit in the polls.

“There are a lot of undecided people,” said Hoover of LA Voice Action.

A coalition led by Hoover’s group has raised $605,000 to support Gascón. Half of the money comes from the Progressive Era PAC. Bay Area criminal justice reform advocate Quinn Delaney, the Smart Justice California Action Fund and SEIU 2015 have each contributed $100,000.

Hoover called the race “an uphill battle” for Gascón.

“I am a man of faith, so I try to practice hope,” he added.

LAist data journalist Maloy Moore contributed to this story.