In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden’s victory in Arizona was decided by just 10,457 votes, the narrowest margin in the country. This made Maricopa County the epicenter of election conspiracy theories, which ultimately came to nothing. Count after count focused on Maricopa, home of Phoenix, its suburbs and exurbs. It’s a huge county, home to 6 out of 10 Arizona voters. But which part of Maricopa should we focus on? Scottsdale, the quintessential swing city, could well decide the presidency in 2024, along with the U.S. Senate race and a contested House race.

How did deep red Georgia become a state where Democrats can win statewide? The answer is Gwinnett County. Probably no other county in the country has exemplified the trend of suburban areas turning from red to blue like Gwinnett, located north and east of Atlanta.

Donald Trump’s big gains in this traditionally Democratic county in 2016 were part of how Trump won the entire state that year. It is a predominantly white, working-class, post-industrial area with an identity crisis. So why didn’t Trump win in 2020? Scranton, the county seat, is where Biden grew up, a fact he has emphasized for decades. Still, Biden didn’t win by much and now he’s not even running. Political pundits are watching how the area’s working-class white women lean.

Philadelphia’s four suburban counties largely determine who wins in Pennsylvania. Of the four, Bucks County is perhaps the most intriguing, as evidenced by personal visits by Trump and Kamala Harris in the final days of the 2024 campaign. (It’s also where Trump had his brief stint as a McDonald’s worker.) Here, abortion is likely to be a major factor among women voters.

Have you ever wondered why candidates from both parties visit Green Bay so frequently? This is because this region, although not the most populated, is highly contested and has oscillated between Barack Obama and Trump. Cultural battles over guns, religion and abortion are driving the contest here.

Most Nevada voters live in Clark County (home of Las Vegas) or Washoe County. While Democrats dominate Clark, Washoe, which includes Reno, has been pivotal in recent elections. What’s driving demographic changes here is the mix of jobs that increasingly require college degrees. Democrats have won Washoe since Republican George W. Bush won it twice. In 2020, Biden won here by four percentage points, helping secure his statewide victory.

Once the heart of national Republican politics, Kent County, home to Grand Rapids, Gerald Ford, the DeVos family and office furniture companies such as Steelcase and Herman Miller, has changed. The area is disproportionately rich in college-educated residents, a key factor moving it away from its staunch Republican roots. In 2008, Obama became the first Democrat in decades to win the county. He lost it to Michigan native Mitt Romney in 2012, Trump won it by three points in 2016 and Biden flipped it by six points in 2020.

You can contact James Pindell at [email protected]. follow him @jamespindell and on instagram @jameswpindell.