As the season enters its home stretch, Nebraska football finds itself in a familiar position, needing just one more win to be bowl eligible, a situation reminiscent of Matt Rhule’s freshman year. You’ve probably had enough reminders of how November 2023 played out, so I won’t repeat it. In his two previous stops in college, Rhule entered November two games away from bowl eligibility as a sophomore. He is no stranger to pressure. He won the fifth game the first week of November in both seasons. In his taste for the dramatic, he waited until the last game to achieve his sixth victory.

This weekend will be the Huskers’ best chance to get that sixth win. UCLA is a below-average football team, but they are coming off a bye after their best game of the season. They have played the toughest schedule in the country, so they are no strangers to tough games. It’s still a game Nebraska should win if it can avoid turnovers and play a clean game on special teams.

This week’s quarterback chart is interesting. Both players diverged earlier in the year, but their season EPA totals are trending back together. UCLA’s Ethan Garbers threw an interception in every game this season before posting a 4-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio against Rutgers. For the Huskers, Rutgers began a streak of three straight games in which Dylan Raiola threw an interception.

I expect UCLA to get yards through the air against Nebraska. They rank 37th in the nation in passing success rate (a measure of how well a team stays ahead of the chains). Despite their ability to move the ball, they rank 84th in EPA/pass at -0.02. The Bruins throw an average of 1.3 interceptions per game, the highest rate in the Big Ten. This has significantly hampered their passing attack, which otherwise shows potential to move the ball.

This UCLA passing defense may be just what the doctor ordered for a Huskers offense looking to get going again. UCLA has faced the most pass attempts of any Big Ten team, allowed the most yards, the highest completion percentage and the most touchdowns. While UCLA effectively limits explosive plays, they tend to be vulnerable to consistent, shorter gains. Raiola should be able to pass for 200 yards with a 70% completion rate against this defense.

UCLA is one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to running the ball. They rank last nationally in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns per game. QB Garbers is responsible for his longest run of the season with 49 yards. His longest run by a running back is just 22 yards by Keegan Jones (not pictured). Only Kennesaw State, in its first season of FBS football, has a worse rushing success rate than the Bruins. The Blackshirts should have a good day defending the run.

Nebraska running back Dante Dowdell played his best conference game against a solid Buckeye run defense last Saturday. Raiola also had a standout performance on the ground, adding 31 rushing yards, helping the Huskers break the 100-yard mark for the second time against Big Ten opponents. UCLA has a good run defense that ranks 33rd in EPA/rush allowed this season.

UCLA is better than its 2-5 record looks. They have played four teams in the current AP top 16, but lost all four of those games. Nebraska has also faced four currently ranked opponents that earned a victory over Colorado. I think the Huskers match up well with the Bruins. UCLA will likely get its yards against a defensive performance that bends but doesn’t break and creates some big turnovers. Nebraska should retain its confidence after a close game against Ohio State and pull out a comfortable victory to secure bowl eligibility.

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