Analysis

“The mayoral race does not appear close, but at least one of the city council seats may be a cause for concern,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst at IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “Joe Cobb’s lead seems insurmountable. While McGuire and Nash maintain a strong lead for the top two council seats, four candidates are within striking distance of claiming the third seat. The Democratic field is strong, as expected in a heavily Democratic city, but a Republican or independent could win that third seat.”

“While Benjamin Woods is helped by his partisan affiliation, Evelyn Powers is using her name recognition to overcome both partisan and electoral standing,” Wilson said. “Perhaps the biggest surprise is that almost half of likely voters have already cast their ballots.”

This is IPOR’s first survey focused on local elections in the City of Roanoke. For more than 30 years, the institute has conducted statewide surveys on politics, consumer sentiment and other topics of importance in Virginia.

The Roanoke City Council survey was a partnership of Roanoke College and The Roanoke Rambler, which together co-sponsored the project.

“This was a good opportunity to expand our community partnerships and provide an important public service,” said Dr. David Taylor, IPOR director and associate vice president for academic operations at Roanoke College. “Both IPOR and the university as a whole are committed to collaborating with students, organizations and governments throughout the Roanoke Valley to address the needs of our community. “We are excited to partner with The Roanoke Rambler on this up-close look at Roanoke City Hall.”

The Roanoke Rambler, a hyperlocal online news site covering the city of Roanoke, approached IPOR to conduct a local poll in the lead-up to the City Council elections. Founder and publisher Henri Gendreau said it was a valuable opportunity to gauge the mood of the electorate on pressing civic issues. Few communities the size of Roanoke have access to public survey data on local issues.

“Roanoke has been galvanized by a three-way mayoral race with well-known candidates,” said Henri Gendreau, editor of The Roanoke Rambler. “Poll shows the Democratic candidate appears to retain a significant share of the city’s Democratic vote.” electorate, which was 61% in the 2020 presidential elections.”

“Although the Roanoke City Council has said it plans to hire a new city manager this year, Roanoke voters overwhelmingly think the City Council elected next week should make that decision, the poll shows,” Gendreau said. “Among several other local issues Roanoke voters were asked, that view garnered the greatest consensus.”