Last week a poll came out showing Republican U.S. Rep. Ana Paulina Luna locked up a tie against the Democratic challenger Whitney Fox in Florida’s 13th congressional district.

Before that, a poll by the same group, St. Pete Polls, found that Fox actually leading Luna by 4 percentage points. While that poll was a surprise and has been an outlier, there’s no denying that things are closer than most would have predicted in an R+6 district.

Don’t believe in surveys? How about fundraising?

fox has been constantly outperforming Luna in each fundraising period this year, and by the end of the third quarter of 2024 it had closed to about $5,000 of the holder in cash on hand, and Luna entered the fourth quarter with $812,000 compared to $807,000 in the bank for Fox.

Institutional support is also there.

Democrats have almost completely endorsed Fox’s candidacy. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has placed Fox in his program “Red to Blue”whose goal is to support candidates running to unseat incumbent Republicans in races the party considers winnable. Fox is the only Democrat in Florida who makes the program and is one of the 33 candidates at the national level appointed for it.

There is evidence to suggest that at least some members of the Republican Party are taking the pressure seriously.

The Win It Back PAC, affiliated with the conservative Club for Growth, lost nearly $150,000 in television and digital advertising over the weekend attacking Fox. The group actively supports Luna, including fundraising for her.

They have two surveys that show Luna with a considerable advantage over Foxand Cook Political Report’s most recent analysis of the race puts it at R+6, between 51% and 45%. A previous Club for Growth poll conducted in August found Luna with a 5-point lead.

To be clear, it is not uncommon for partisan organizations to spend money on elections even if there is a clear favorite. Conventional campaign wisdom holds that every candidate should run like he’s behind, no matter what the polls or fundraising say. That is still true.

But a look at other spending around the same time as the Win It Back spending in Luna’s race offers reason to believe that Club for Growth may be a little more concerned than the polls would suggest.

Most of the weekend spending… more than $146,000 – headed toward a television ad attacking Fox. Another couple of thousand went into digital advertising, also attacking Fox. Before that, the PAC lost more than $156,000 on television ads and more than $4,000 on digital ads attacking Fox. All of that came after the last poll showed that Luna and Fox were tied, although it is possible, even probable, that the ads had been planned before the poll came out.

In fact, the group spent another $150,000 more on television ads opposing Fox in early October, well before the most recent poll.

But Fox is also one of only a dozen candidates. appear among the top 60 expenses included on the Federal Election Commission’s list for Win It Back.

Meanwhile, Win It Back spent less than $2,000 during the weekend attacking David Minthe democrat competing against the republican Scott Baugh for California seat vacated by Democratic U.S. Rep. katie porter. That’s considered a swing district. There, a recent poll puts Baugh just under 4 percentage points ahead of Min. The race is a bounce-back opportunity for the GOP, unlike Luna’s race, which the GOP is defending.

The expense against Fox is by no means Win It Back’s biggest expense. The group lost at least $4.6 million this month on television advertising opposing Colin Allred in Texas, where he is challenging the incumbent Republican U.S. senator. Ted Cruz. Last month, they spent more than $3.2 million opposing Allred.

Another main objective is Ruben Gallegothat competes against kari lake for the United States Senate in Arizona. Win It Back lost nearly $2.3 million last week against Gallego.

Jacky RosenU.S. Senator from Nevada, is another top target as Republicans look to flip her seat. Win It Back spent more than $5.7 million on television advertising attacking her from August to early October. And those are just the big purchases.

So while the anti-Fox spending is a drop in the ocean compared to some competitive Senate races around the country, it’s still significant and a sign that Republicans are at least a little worried about Luna’s chances.

“What that tells me is that Whitney Fox is going to win Tuesday night,” the Florida Democratic Party chairwoman said. fried nikki he told the Florida Politics journalist Jacob Ogles this week. “Whitney Fox has been a stellar candidate, showing the people of her community exactly what they should expect from a member of Congress after not one, after two hurricanes, she was out there fighting for her constituents before they were her constituents.” voters.”

Still, a Fox victory without a doubt be considered a nuisanceand no one is suggesting that these spending patterns mean the Moon will go down.

But it underscores how volatile this election cycle has been. Republicans, particularly those who have openly embraced the most extreme views of the Republican Party during the former president’s administration. donald trump — as Luna has — face tight races even in otherwise uncompetitive districts.

Luna, for example, won her district just two years ago. by approximately 8 percentage points. There were similarities. Like Fox, Luna’s opponent two years ago, Eric LynnHe was a centrist democrat and turned out to be a great fundraisergrossing over $2 million at this point in her career that cycle, with almost $600,000 on hand, more than Luna had at the time.

And the district, since 2022, has only gotten redder. Republicans then controlled just over 37% of the electorate, compared to nearly 32% for Democrats and more than 29% for independents. Republicans now make up nearly 39% of the electorate, with less than 30% Democrats and nearly 29% independents, according to L2 voter data.

Voters in Texas are seeing similar trends in Allred’s race against Cruz, where a Democrat appears to be outperforming in a red state because some view Cruz as unattractive.

No one has a crystal ball to say whether being labeled an extremist is enough to unseat Trump-aligned Republicans this cycle, and even if it happens in one race, it’s not likely to happen in all of them.

But the spending shows that Democrats in districts that once would have been considered unwinnable are cooperating, and the GOP is taking the threat seriously.

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