The 2024 elections between donald trump and Kamala Harris looks closer than ever as the race enters its final week.

Pollsters and forecasters say Trump has a slight lead over the Democratic nominee, but could still go either way.

Trump’s national average numbers have improved slightly against Harris’s since last week, though major aggregators still show the vice president ahead overall. The battle between Harris and Trump in the seven key swing states that could ultimately decide the election remains a toss-up, with the candidates virtually tied or only marginally ahead in several polls.

news week has contacted both campaign teams for comment via email.

veteran pollster Nate Silverwho founded 538 and now uses a similar forecasting model for his Silver Bulletin blog, recently wrote in The New York Times that labeling the race a 50-50 draw is the “only responsible forecast.” Silver added that his “gut instinct” suggests Trump will win the Electoral College count.

“However, I don’t think you should put any value on anyone’s instincts, including mine,” Silver wrote. “Instead, they should resign themselves to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really means 50-50. They should remain open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could equally be the case under Mr. Trump. Mrs. Harris.”

Harris’ clearest path to victory in November would depend on winning the three states on the blue wall battlefield of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring shocking results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient route to winning 270 Electoral College votes would involve winning Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

National Averages

Harris has a national average lead over Trump of just over 1.4 points (48.1 percent to 46.6 percent), according to 538. This is a slight decrease from the 1.7 point lead she had on October 22, when There were two weeks left until the elections.

The poll aggregator indicates that Trump has a 54 percent chance of winning the race in November, but emphasizes that it is still essentially a matter of luck.

“The closeness of the race bears repeating what has recently become something of a mantra here at 538: a close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the result will be close,” wrote G. Elliott Morris of 538. “The seven swing states are still within the normal polling error of going toward the candidate who is currently ‘losing’ in each.”

Silver’s model gives Harris a national average polling lead over Trump of 1.1 points (48.6 percent to 47.5 percent). Trump’s numbers have improved 0.5 points compared to last week.

On October 26, RealClearPolitics reported that Trump had surpassed Harris in his national average for the first time since the vice president became the Democratic PartyThe nominee of 2024. Trump is currently ahead of Harris by 0.5 points, 48.1 percent to Harris’ 47.6 percent.

Harris maintains a 0.7-point national lead over Trump (48.6 percent to 47.9 percent), according to polling group Decision Desk HQ/The Hill. This is down from the 1 point lead the vice president had last week.

Oscillating states

According to 538, Harris and Trump are essentially tied in four key battleground states. Both have 47.8 percent in Wisconsin, while Trump has a slight lead in Pennsylvania (plus 0.3 points) and Nevada (0.2 points). Harris is ahead at Michigan (0.5 points).

Trump enjoys larger leads in North Carolina (up 1.3 points), Georgia (1.6 points) and Arizona (1.9 points).

Silver Bulletin indicates that Harris is ahead in the blue wall states of Michigan (0.5 points) and Wisconsin (0.4 points). Trump leads Harris in Pennsylvania (0.5 points), North Carolina (1.3 points), Georgia (1.4 points), and Arizona (2 points). The candidates are tied in Nevada at 47.9 percent.

RealClearPolitics shows Trump ahead of Harris in all seven swing states.

The former president leads in Arizona (plus 1.5 points), Georgia (2.3 points), Michigan (0.1 points), Nevada (0.7 points), North Carolina (0.8 points), Pennsylvania (0 .5 points) and Wisconsin (0.3 points).

Recent surveys

A TIPP tracking poll of 1,288 likely voters found that Trump and Harris are tied at 48 percent. The survey was conducted from October 25 to 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

TO C.B.S. The News/YouGov poll conducted Oct. 23-25 ​​showed Harris with a 1-point lead over Trump nationally (50 percent to 49 percent). The survey of 2,161 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

An Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters also found Trump and Harris tied at 49 percent each. The national survey was conducted Oct. 23-24 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points either way.

With just one week until Election Day, follow Newsweek’s live blog for the latest updates.