donald trump: Donald Trump in a stronger position than previous campaigns: is the ‘Hidden Trump Vote’ theory the reason?

Although the former president is trailing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in most polls, the gap is smaller compared to his previous elections, suggesting a closer contest in the upcoming election.

Trump’s improved poll numbers indicate a competitive race, where he has consistently performed better with real voters than with those who responded to surveys, as noted in a USA Today report

The ‘hidden Trump vote’ theory

A key factor in the Trump campaign’s strategy is the concept of the “hidden Trump vote.” This term refers to voters who plan to support Trump but are not allowed to express this preference to pollsters.

The phenomenon was first observed in 2016 and contributed to Trump’s unexpected Electoral College victory despite losing the popular vote to Clinton by 2.1 percentage points.

Also read: According to a poll, Kamala Harris is the leader among women in most swing states except Arizona However, experts say whether such a hidden voting bloc will still exist in 2024 remains uncertain. Trump himself has repeatedly underlined his belief in this hidden support, recently claiming a lead in Pennsylvania at a rally that he suggested could be even bigger than reported, according to the USA Today report.

Pollsters adapt methodologies

The electoral landscape has changed since the last election, with adjustments made to capture a wider range of voter opinions. Many pollsters have revised their methodologies to better account for voters who may be missed by traditional voting techniques, such as those who avoid telephone surveys.

In 2024, new issues, including debates over abortion laws and economic concerns such as the rising cost of living, will also influence voter behavior and increase turnout among different demographic groups.

Pollster Frank Luntz points out that the outcome of this election will depend on factors that won’t be clear until Election Day, reflecting the changing nature of voter sentiment.
Key battleground states remain tight

As in previous elections, national polls may offer only a limited perspective on the 2024 battle. The real battleground lies in the individual states, especially those that are critical to the outcome of the Electoral College.

Key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina are showing tight races, with most polls showing statistical parity within the margin of error.

Republican pollster Whit Ayres notes, “The only thing you can say for sure is that the seven swing states are all very close together. They are all effectively connected.”

Also read: The Apprentice: Where can you watch Donald Trump’s movie on streaming?

The latest data from Real Clear Politics shows Harris with a slight 1.8% lead over Trump nationally.

However, this is significantly closer than Joe Biden’s 10.3% lead over Trump at the same time in 2020, which ultimately narrowed on Election Day.

Similarly, in 2016, Hillary Clinton had a 6% lead in the national polls at this stage, but the election outcome was much closer: Trump won the Electoral College.

Historical comparisons: 2016, 2020 and 2024

In 2016, while Clinton won 48.2% of the vote to Trump’s 46.1%, Trump won the Electoral College with 304 votes compared to Clinton’s 227. Four years later, Biden defeated Trump by a larger popular vote margin of 51.3% to 46.9%. winning the Electoral College with 306 votes to Trump’s 232.

These comparisons highlight that Trump’s electoral deficit does not necessarily predict his ultimate performance, especially in key states that can influence the Electoral College.

Potential impact of corrected polling methods

Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg points out that pollsters have adjusted their methods, aiming to correct mistakes from previous elections. He highlights that Republican candidates in the 2022 midterm elections underperformed compared to their poll numbers, suggesting that shifts in voter preferences could impact the accuracy of current polls.

Rosenberg also suggests that the hidden voting phenomenon could now favor Harris and the Democrats, making the race even more unpredictable.

Frequently asked questions

Who will lead the 2024 US elections?
According to the latest reports, both Trump and Harris are competing neck and neck.

When are the US polls?
Elections will be held in the US on November 5.