Phillie’s mistake, Cubs connect with Japanese ace, Guardians trade ace

As we prepare for an exciting World Series matchup between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers, most of the MLB is gearing up for the offseason. Free Agency is just around the corner, which means a lot of big names are about to switch teams.

Plus, it’s always trading season in the MLB. As contracts get closer to their expiration dates, teams tend to take stock and explore the market. There are a few obvious headliners this winter – expect to hear a lot about Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell – but the rumors circulating around the league these days span a much broader spectrum.

Here’s the latest scuttlebutt worth your attention.

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The Cleveland Guardians fell just short in the ALCS. After dominating all season based on their bullpen, the Guardians’ relievers couldn’t figure out the Yankees’ lineup. That caused the offense, led by none other than Josh Naylor, to dry up.

At 27 years old, Naylor is about to enter the final year of his contract. There wasn’t a more reliable bat in Cleveland’s lineup in October, but Naylor’s expiring contract will invariably lead to a huge raise next season. The talented first baseman will certainly test the open market when the time comes, and the offers could quickly exceed Cleveland’s small-market limits.

That’s why Bally Sports’ Andre Knott believes Naylor is on the trade block.

The Guardians were a masterclass in competing on a budget this season. A strong bullpen can overcome many other shortcomings, and that will remain the strategy going forward – for better or for worse. It stings right now, but a six-game loss to the No. 1 seed in the ALCS is a great result and gives Cleveland a foundation to build on.

It’s clear that fans want Naylor back and in a Guardians uniform for the long haul, but it’s hard to imagine Naylor staying in Cleveland past 2025. That’s exactly how this competition works. Expect the Guardians to replace him by committee, or look for cheaper alternatives in the form of free agency.

Shinnosuke Ogasawara, the 27-year-old left-hander from Japan’s Chunichi Dragons, will be drafted to MLB teams this winter. He is the latest in an increasingly long line of talented Japanese pitchers to migrate to the United States, following in the immediate footsteps of 2024 rookies Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga.

Ogasawara has even earned several comparisons to Imanaga. The 30-year-old Chicago Cubs rookie made the All-Star team this season and wowed MLB hitters with his powerful mix of off-speed pitches. Like Imanaga, Ogasawara lacks the size and strength we traditionally associate with elite MLB greats. That said, the rookie lefty posted a 3.12 ERA in the NPB last season and is especially intriguing because of his youth.

From Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors:

“Video of Ogasawara reveals a pitcher sitting in the 90-90 mph range with his four-sieve, completing the pitch with a changeup in the low 80s and a slow knuckle curve that is in the low 70s Neither Ogasawara’s frame nor speed stands out, but both are relatively comparable to the 5’10”, 175-pound Cubs lefty. Ogasawara’s camp may try to make that comparison, but Imanaga consistently posted lower earned run averages and much better strikeout rates in NPB (29.5% in his final season with the BayStars).”

Ogasawara isn’t expected to get the same contract value as Imanaga ($53 million guaranteed), but he could land a multi-year contract from a team in need of rotation depth. What he lacks in overwhelming speed, Ogasawara will look to make up for with precise control and excellent discipline.

Pour one out for the dreamers — those who dared to imagine Juan Soto in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform — because it’s not going to happen. Dave Dombrowski was candid with reporters when he made a recent media appearance and outlined the Phillies’ strategy this winter. He didn’t give many details, but Dombrowski did pushing back on the possibility of Philadelphia turning to a new star.

“I don’t think we need more star players,” Dombrowski said. “We have as many stars as anyone in baseball. Sometimes it’s not just the star players; sometimes it’s the supporting cast.”

While Dombrowski hasn’t explicitly ruled out Juan Soto or another high-priced target, it’s clear the Phillies will operate conservatively to stay under the third luxury tax amount, which is $281 million. Philadelphia’s current projected cap hit, according to MLB.com, is $262.6 million. It’s unfortunate for Philly fans, but it’s inevitable. This team will not operate with the aggression we are used to.

In a sense, Dombrowski is right. The Phillies don’t need Juan Soto to win the National League, although it would certainly help, especially if he goes to the Mets instead. But Dombrowski needs to hold up his end of the bargain and improve the supporting cast in meaningful ways. From that pesky fifth rotation spot to the myriad issues in Philadelphia’s outfield, there is plenty for the Phillies front office to address.

Let’s see how serious this team is about maximizing this finite World Series window.