The Conservatives have been given the perfect attacking line

It’s easy political football

October 23, 2024 6:45 PM(Updated 6:52 PM)

Imagine the perfect Tory attack ad. The Conservatives tried it during the general election. They released a video showing a small boat arriving with migrants on it and a red carpet being rolled out on the beach. The word ‘welcome’ was scrawled in the sand and the film ended with the words: ‘Labour’s approach to illegal immigration’.

The film was considered reprehensible on several levels – but also on a practical level. Was the government of the past fourteen years, during which small boat crossings had soared, really capable of striking a blow?

These days, the brains at Conservative Campaign Headquarters don’t have to think too far outside the box when it comes to their next video. Instead, they could simply grab a newspaper or stand outside a prison for materials. This week, Labor released the second batch of prisoners on early release as they tried to deal with prison overcrowding. The headlines write themselves.

So far this week, there’s convicted kidnapper Daniel Dowling-Brooks shouting: “Big up Starmer!” for early release from a seven-year prison sentence. Then there’s the man convicted of assault who said he will “definitely” vote for Keir Starmer after he was released after serving half his sentence. That’s before you even get to the gang member imprisoned for torture and kidnapping who was released early before taking to TikTok to announce his release. As one Labor staffer put it: “It’s terrible”.

Even if the Tories take some of the blame, it will not change the fact that some voters will see what is happening and link it to the Labor government under which it happened. It’s a problem the party has long anticipated, but that doesn’t mean they have the answer. Sue Gray may have left 10 Downing Street, but her ‘shit list’ of potential crises awaiting a Labor government lives on. At the top of that list was prison overcrowding.

The Tories calculated that the political disadvantage of releasing prisoners early was too great – so they had the system on edge. At times the number of spare prison cells was in the single digits. The new Justice Minister, Shabana Mahmood, was unwilling to let things get so close. She previously told me about the sleepless nights she expected in government if Labor won the election.

The problem for ministers, however, is that this is just the beginning. Difficult decisions are piling up about a sustainable solution for the number of convicts versus the number of prison places. While Mahmood and Starmer see the emergency aid they have had to deploy as a prime example of the Tories’ irresponsible behavior in government, the long-term strategy for justice will have to be Labour’s own. And here are the signs that fewer custodial sentences or shorter prison sentences are a trend that is expected to increase.

Read Next

In opposition, Mahmood once had to warn her then shadow cabinet colleagues to stop suggesting that the easy answer to their problems would be tougher sentences. She said anyone pushing for harsher sentences should find the money for more prison spaces. In government, figures from the Ministry of Justice believe that even if all the planned additional spaces are created, a new approach will be needed.

In a politically astute move, Mahmood has appointed David Gauke, the former Tory foreign secretary, to lead an investigation into the sentencing. It’s a smart decision because Gauke is a Conservative, so tough decisions can be presented as cross-party, and the One Nation Tory is known to be sympathetic to the abolition of custodial sentences for some groups.

The pair could even head to Texas at some point to embark on a fact-finding mission. However, this is not exactly new. The last Attorney General, Alex Chalk, talked about Texas-style reforms. Previous justice secretaries, such as Michael Gove, have visited Texas in search of answers. The good thing is that Texas sounds harsh – some associate it with the death penalty. Still, the measures Mahmood is looking at include house arrest measures, community work and things like sobriety checks and smartwatches to monitor behavior.

The dilemma for the Labor government: they were tough on crime. They talked about more prisons. Yet Mahmood will be one of the losers in this month’s budget, and she must somehow figure out how to frame a possible reduction in custodial sentences as harsh justice. It’s a puzzle that others have avoided because it’s so difficult to do. That is why the Tories allowed the problem to fester, to the point that one of the reasons Rishi Sunak called for a July election was the fear of prison riots if overcrowding continued. It is better to go to the polls than to release prisoners.

In CCHQ they are ready to go on the offensive due to this week’s releases and a future rule change. But Conservatives may want to think twice before going all-in. After all, did they make the problem better or worse? It’s an easy political football, but a consensus between the parties could be the best thing for the country as a whole.

Katy Balls is political editor at The spectator